December 21st, 2007 • Judging by the reaction to my latest mock draft on the message boards it appears that Falcon fans don't want a quarterback with their top pick. In response to that I only have one question:   Are you kidding me?   Seriously, are you kidding me? Now I'll be the first to tell you that there isn't a quarterback in this draft worthy of a Top 10 pick, let alone a Top 5 pick, but need plays a bigger role than ever these days and it's pretty easy to make the argument that no team has a more gaping hole at any position than Atlanta does at quarterback. Joey Harrington. Byron Leftwich. Chris Redman! I think that says it all. Are there going to be better players available to the Falcons with that first pick? Absolutely. However in the NFL everything revolves around the quarterback position and until you are set there you really aren't going anywhere. Just ask the Chicago Bears, Baltimore Ravens and about a half dozen other teams. I know it's popular for NFL decision makers to say they are going to take the "best player available" but that, for the lack of a better word, is bull. 99% of the time they are going to take the best player who fills a major need. Falcon fans will probably tell you they'd rather take Darren McFadden or Jake Long with the first pick and then get a quarterback later but there is no guaranteeing the guy they are targeting will be available later and believe it or not Tom Brady is the exception, not the rule. Sure you can find a starting quarterback later in the draft but it's not nearly as easy as some make it out to be and if you want a true star you'll most likely have to get him in the first round. Do names like John Elway and Peyton Manning ring a bell? Obviously it's still very early and a lot can happen but at this point I would be absolutely stunned if the Falcons didn't take a signal caller with that top pick and if they don't it will be yet another huge and almost monumental mistake for that franchise.   Then again at the rate they are going maybe they won't take a quarterback...  December 20th, 2007 • I know most Dolphin fans were hoping for Darren McFadden with that #1 pick but even before Bill Parcells took over the chances of that happening were slim and none and now that the Tuna is in charge slim just left the building. There is no denying that McFadden is a terrific player who would've been a sexy and popular pick but the bottom line is passing on him is the right move.   After investing the #2 overall pick on Ronnie Brown and giving him $19.5 in guaranteed money just a few years ago in 2005 there is just no way the Dolphins could even begin to justify taking McFadden and dropping another $30+ million on him. Sure Brown is coming off a knee injury but it's not as if those are career-enders these days and prior to getting hurt he was emerging as one of the elite runners in the NFL. Darren McFadden is a phenomenal player and he will almost certainly be the top rated prospect in this draft but Parcells values defense and the Phins simply have way too many needs to use that pick frivolously on yet another running back. Some might point out the success the Vikings had taking Adrian Peterson even though they already had a 1,000 yard rusher in Chester Taylor as justification for why McFadden should be Miami's choice but that is comparing apples and oranges. First of all the financial commitment for the #7 pick is about half of that of the #1 selection and furthermore Minnesota only had about $6 million of guaranteed money invested in Taylor. Perhaps more importantly, the Vikings and Dolphins are basically in completely different stages of development and, I'm sorry to break it to you Dolphin fans, Miami is in a lot worse shape now than Minnesota was a year ago. In my opinion Glenn Dorsey is looking like a better bet than ever to land in Miami, although Parcells will also likely consider Chris Long if they traded down. However, as I have said in the past I'm not sure how much of a market there will be for that #1 pick. I have had Dorsey going to Miami in my mocks for a while and with Parcells running the show I am more confident than ever in that projection.  December 19th, 2007 • Over the next few weeks we are going to be hearing about a lot of guys entering the 2008 NFL Draft early so I thought I'd take this opportunity to talk about a guy who recently made the decision to return to college for his senior year. In my blog earlier this month ( December 5 ) I wrote about how Central Florida running back Kevin Smith wasn't quite the pro prospect some were making him out to be, despite his eye-popping statistics (2,448 yards / 30 TD's and just 180 yards shy of tying Barry Sanders for the all-time single-season mark with one game to go). In fact, his coach George O'Leary talked with some of his NFL contacts and came away with the impression that Smith would have gone somewhere betweens rounds two and four, which I believe to be an accurate assessment. In all honesty Smith probably won't go much higher a year from now but there should be less competition at the running back position assuming most of the top juniors come out as expected and by going back to school he'll have a legitimate shot at breaking Ron Dayne's Division I-A all-time rushing record. Oh, and he will be very much in the Heisman mix as well. In Smith's case there really wasn't a wrong decision and I wouldn't have faulted him either way; however I think going back to school was a pretty good move for him.  December 18th, 2007 • One of the interesting storylines to watch develop in the offseason will be what happens at quarterback in Minnesota, Chicago and Baltimore. You can argue that with improved play under center each of those squads would be a contender in 2008 and the Vikings might already be a playoff team despite Tarvaris Jackson and his 6 TD's and 10 INT's. But the problem is who will be available? It sounds like there is a good chance that Donovan McNabb will be on the market and he may take one of those jobs but other than that the pickings are going to be pretty slim.   I'm talking Chad Pennington, Daunte Culpepper & Cleo Lemon slim.   Sure the Bears and Ravens might have a shot at guys like Matt Ryan, Brian Brohm and André Woodson in round one of the draft but as I said they probably both feel as if they can contend next season and you wonder if they will be content going with a rookie signal caller. If I were either Baltimore or Chicago I would identify the quarterback prospect who I feel is most ready to come in and play immediately in the league, hope he can simply manage a game and then rely on my defense to carry me into the playoffs. Assuming I can't get Donovan McNabb that is. Oh, and if I were the Ravens I'd be giving Troy Smith every single snap the rest of the season because he has shown a little something the past couple of weeks and they need to find out exactly what they have in him. It's obvious that guys like Kyle Boller and Rex Grossman aren't the answer and while it will be tempting for them to bring in a veteran stop-gap solution since they are so close to contending in my opinion they just need to bite the bullet and start over at the quarterback position, even if it compromises their ability to be a legitimate contender next season. And then the wild card in all of this is Derek Anderson, who will be a restricted free agent, but it would likely require at least a 1st round pick and a big contract to pry him away from Cleveland. However, even though the price will be steep he is a young quarterback who is a proven commodity and he even has some experience in a playoff race. With all the uncertainty that comes with drafting quarterbacks I would rather risk that high choice and a big contract on Anderson than Ryan, Brohm or Woodson. It will be fun to watch how it all plays out but I would not be at all surprised to see a lot of jockeying for a signal caller between those three teams.  December 17th, 2007 • There are a lot of high-profile coaches moving around at some prestigious programs right now and as a draftnik I can't help but wonder if and how these moves will affect the underclassmen.   Take Rich Rodriguez leaving West Virginia for Michigan as an example. Are the Mountaineers two top juniors, Steve Slaton and Pat White, more inclined to test the draft waters now that there is so much uncertainty surrounding their team? Or at Michigan will Mario Manningham see the writing on the wall and bolt rather than stick around for another year to play in Rodriguez's run-heavy spread offense? At Arkansas everyone assumes Darren McFadden is gone but what about Felix Jones? Will he stick around to play under Bobby Petrino or will he follow his buddy and coach out the door? These are just a few cases to watch but with close to twenty Division I jobs being turned over there are a lot of guys who will have to make similar decisions. Last year Brian Brohm was in a similar situation and he opted not to follow Petrino to the NFL. Whether or not that was a good decision remains to be seen but regardless of what happens on Draft Day there is no doubt he suffered through a very disappointing senior year team-wise at Louisville.   So keep an eye on the developments at these schools with new coaches because who they bring in could have a big influence on the decision making process of some top underclassmen.  December 14th, 2007 • Before his 3 sack performance against Michigan a few weeks ago people certainly knew about Vernon Gholston but maybe didn't truly appreciate what a great player he is. That isn't the case anymore though and if he opts to enter the 2008 NFL Draft as a junior I think there is a strong chance he will contend to be the first defensive end chosen and possibly a Top 10 overall pick.   As you can see by the picture by below Gholston is a physical marvel with a cut 6-4, 264 lb. frame and needless to say he should show very well in workouts prior to the draft. Gholston isn't just a workout warrior though because he has the production to match his physical gifts, with 14.5 tackles for a loss and 13.0 sacks this year. Just to put that into perspective for you his counterparts in the junior defensive end class, Calais Campbell and Derrick Harvey, have 12.5 sacks combined. And he isn't just a one-year wonder either because he tallied 15.0 TFL and 8.0 sacks a year ago as well. A versatile player who could line up at defensive end in a 4-3 scheme or be a rush outside linebacker in a 3-4, Gholston actually reminds me a lot of Shawne Merriman both in terms of his build as well as his game. Needless to say I like Mr. Gholston a lot and if he opts to leave early after the Buckeyes showdown with L.S.U. for the BCS Championship, which most seem to feel he will, Gholston will almost certainly be in the Top 10 overall of my rankings.  December 13th, 2007 • Not to sound negative but I was just thinking about it today and this is really not a very good draft. Don't get me wrong there are a lot of good players available but when I compare it to the last couple of years I just don't see the same quality at the top of the draft and throughout the first round. As I have said all along Darren McFadden, assuming he comes out, is the only lock to receive my top four star grade while Glenn Dorsey is the best bet among the seniors. But only two "elite" prospects in the entire draft? I am notoriously stingy with that label but having just two guys earn it this year would even surprise me because there are usually at least twice that many. Beyond that there just aren't many seniors who I see as legitimate first round picks. In fact, in my opinion there are only fifteen seniors who I would realistically and comfortably call first rounders at this point and that might be generous. Of course as always juniors will play a huge role and there is no doubt they will bolster the '08 talent pool but even with the infusion of underclassmen I simply do not see this class holding up well when comparing it to the last couple of years. In fact, there is a chance that this might be the worst draft since 2005. That's not to say there is anything wrong with that because you will have ups and downs with the draft throughout the years and this just happens to be a down year. There is still a long ways to go and a lot can change over the next four months but that is what I am feeling right now.   On the bright side things are definitely looking good for 2009!  December 12th, 2007 • I guess I shouldn't have been shocked to hear that Bobby Petrino had left the Atlanta Falcons to accept a job back in the college ranks at Arkansas yet for some strange reason I was. In a way I can't really blame him because thanks to Michael Vick that situation was not the one he thought he was getting into when he took the job but at the same time it is still pretty stunning to see a guy turn tail and run with just thirteen games under his belt. Petrino has always been the type who kept one eye open in case a better job came along, flirting with just about every available opening while he was the head man at Louisville, so when the opportunity to get off that sinking ship in Atlanta presented itself he jumped. The tough part about this is that even though the Vick fiasco deserves the majority of the blame for the absolute mess the Falcons have become Petrino shoulders his fair share as well after alienating many of the key veterans and beginning a major philosophical overhaul that he won't be around to complete. A perfect example is the offensive line, where Petrino wanted to go away from the zone blocking scheme that the Falcons had so much success with over the years and bring in bigger guys. Now what do they do? This is not the end of the world and parting ways was probably the best thing for both sides but this is yet another major setback for that Atlanta franchise and for all intents and purposes they will essentially be starting from scratch again this offseason. Oh, and if I were an Arkansas fan I'd be pretty worried every time a big job opens up because you can bet Petrino's name will be linked to it. In fact, is that Michigan I hear calling already? Just kidding. Or am I...   The other guy this could really affect is Brian Brohm because most assumed that wherever Atlanta was picking in round one would be a worst-case scenario for him. Now that he doesn't have the Petrino connection will the Falcons still be interested in him? Sure they will probably be interested in him, but do they like him enough to take him over Matt Ryan? Or André Woodson? The Petrino factor could have potentially tipped the scales in his favor but now all bets are off.   Only in this crazy year of football can a guy go from coaching in the NFL on national television on Monday Night to yelling "Woo Pig Sooie" at a press conference less than 24 hours later...  December 11th, 2007 • I just realized that despite using this blog to tout some of the lesser-known top prospects like Leodis McKelvin, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Jason Jones I have failed to feature the guy who just might wind up going before all of them. Joe Flacco of Delaware.   A Division II powerhouse that has had a bit of success when it comes to sending players to the next level, Delaware's most famous alum is Rich Gannon but more recently Ben Patrick played in the Senior Bowl and was chosen by Arizona in the 7th round a year ago. Flacco will try and expand on that tradition and at this point it looks like there is a very strong chance he'll become the Blue Hens highest drafted player ever, surpassing Gannon who was a 4th rounder in 1987. Flacco began his college career at Pittsburgh but after seeing little action as Tyler Palko's backup he transferred down a level in 2005 and after sitting out a year he took over the starting job and really hasn't looked back since. Physically Flacco has all the tools you look for with a big frame (6-6, 230) and a very strong arm and watching him on film it's obvious that he throws a nice ball. However he is still far from a finished product having played against a lower level of competition and might be more of a developmental type who will need to be groomed for at least a year or two before he's ready to contend for the top spot on a depth chart. That isn't stopping scouts from talking him up as a potential Day One pick though and while I am not nearly as high on him as some (he's more of a mid to late rounder in my mind) you should not be surprised if he ends up going ahead of some signal callers with much bigger profiles and a lot more hype. Matt Ryan. Brian Brohm. André Woodson. Joe Flacco?  December 10th, 2007 • Florida's Tim Tebow was just awarded the Heisman Trophy a couple of days ago but as I always say it is never too early to look ahead and with that in mind here is my very early preview of the top contenders for next year. Now I had to make an assumption or two with this when it came to guys going pro early, like Darren McFadden, but overall I think this is a pretty good starting point and I'd be surprised if these names weren't on just about every preseason watch list. So without further adieu here is a real quick look at the early front-runners to be named next year's "most outstanding college football player". The Favorite   Tim Tebow, QB, Florida   He just became the first sophomore to ever win the Heisman Trophy and now he will try and become the first player to win it three times! That is probably asking a lot but he will at least have the opportunity and if nothing else there is a good chance he could join Archie Griffin as the only players to win it twice. This was actually supposed to be a rebuilding season for the Gators so there is no reason to believe that both Tebow and his team won't be even better in '08 with another year of experience under their belt, which is a scary thought for the rest of the SEC. Tebow is doing things nobody else has ever done and he is a phenomenal college football player so he has to be considered the favorite to win the Heisman yet again a year from now. Next Best   Pat White, QB, West Virginia   If he hadn't gotten banged up against South Florida and Pittsburgh the Mountaineers might have won both of those contests, finished with an undefeated record, played for a National Championship and White could very well have won the Heisman. Even if Steve Slaton sticks around for one more year it's pretty clear that White is the real star for West Virginia and their one true Heisman candidate. The Mountaineers should have a very good team again next year and if White can stay healthy he will have a fantastic shot at taking home the Heisman Trophy. In the Discussion   Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia   After finishing his freshman season on a tear perhaps nobody has as much momentum going into next year as Mr. Moreno. Georgia is a young team on the rise and Moreno has emerged as their star so if they continue to show improvement like they did down the stretch this year then they will be in the hunt for an SEC Championship and Moreno will be a top Heisman candidate.   Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma   After setting a number of freshman passing records Bradford is already a college football force and with all the talent they have coming back the Sooners should once again be right in the mix as not only one of the best teams in the Big 12 but in the nation. In 2007 Bradford got his name out there and next year may be when he solidifies himself as a top player and award candidate.   Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri / Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri   Call them this year's version of Pat White & Steve Slaton. Daniel finished fourth in the balloting this year but the big question is whether or not Missouri can repeat their Cinderella season. If Mizzou remains a contender in the Big 12 next year then both Daniel and Maclin will be right in the mix, although even if that happens there will always be the danger of them splitting votes.   Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech   It is going to be extremely difficult for Crabtree to top or even repeat the season he just had statistically but if he can even come close there is no reason why he shouldn't be invited to New York for the ceremony next year. In fact, you can make the argument that he deserved to make the trip this year but as a redshirt freshman that was a long-shot. Much like Colt Brennan was this year Crabtree just may emerge as the pet candidate of voters who like those big numbers.   Chris Wells, RB, Ohio St.   It's a bit surprising that despite winning the Big Ten and playing for a National Championship the Buckeyes really didn't have a legitimate Heisman candidate in 2007. That should change next year though and while quarterback Todd Boeckman may have a shot as well I think Beanie Wells is the guy to watch in Columbus. As a sophomore Wells emerged as one of the premier running backs in college football and in '08 he will get the national hype that goes along with it.   Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas   This year Jones ran for 1,117 yards (9.1 avg) and 11 TD's while splitting the workload with Darren McFadden so it's scary to think what he might do with three times as many carries. Of course Jones could follow McFadden to the pros early but if he sticks around for his senior year he will finally start to garner the type of national attention that his talent warrants and along with that could come a serious run at the Heisman Trophy. Some may overlook him but I won't. The Sleeper   Ryan Perriloux, QB, L.S.U.   There are still a lot of questions with this guy and his off-the-field issues may preclude him from actually winning the Heisman but in terms of talent and situation Perriloux could make a serious run. A former top prep recruit who had to bide his time behind JaMarcus Russell and Matt Flynn, next year Perriloux will finally get his opportunity to shine and with all of the talent he'll have surrounding him I think he could emerge as a serious contender. Perriloux has looked pretty good in limited action and if he can do that for an entire season this guy will really burst onto the college football scene in 2008. Being a extraordinarily talented quarterback for a top ranked SEC team is always a good recipe for Heisman success so Perriloux has the ingredients.  December 7th, 2007 • It's that time of the year and we recently had our first underclassmen declaration, with word coming down that Miami (FL) safety Kenny Phillips will bypass his senior season and enter the 2008 NFL Draft. Phillips, a sure-fire 1st round pick, may have been the first to announce his intentions to go pro early but he certainly won't be the last and there is a chance we could see a record number of youngsters bolt this year in an effort to take advantage of a weak senior class. To this point more guys have said they are going back than have said they are leaving but as I always stress this time of year don't believe anything these kids say. More often than not a junior saying he isn't going pro early in November or December is merely an effort to stop all the questions about it so he can concentrate on the rest of his season. Are they outright lying? In some cases yes but in most they probably don't even know themselves and it is hard to blame them because they have not had the opportunity to gauge the NFL's interest via the underclassmen advisory panel, talk with their coaches, etc. Between now and January 15 there will undoubtedly be players who insist they are going back to school for one more year only to bolt for the cash but if this frustrates you it's your own fault for believing them in the first place.   The period between the middle of December and the middle of January is arguably one of the most exciting times of the year for draftniks because that is when the crop of talent gets a major shot in the arm in the form of underclassmen. This year will be no different and if I had to guess it will be more exciting than ever. So keep a close eye on the wire in the coming weeks and expect the majority of the announcements to start rolling in once the bowl games start wrapping up. We all know about Darren McFadden but not only will all the usual likely suspects come out early but I think we will also see more surprises than usual, not only in terms of elite prospects but some who are fringe 2nd and 3rd rounders as well, and that should just add to what is already a very exciting process. This crop of talent is about to go from a C to a high B.   The college and pro seasons may be nearing an end but the draft season is just beginning!  December 6th, 2007 • In the past few years a Draft Day trend has started to emerge and to be honest I really had not even noticed it until someone recently pointed it out to me. What is that trend? Great inside linebackers being chosen in the 2nd round. Think about it, in 2005 we had Lofa Tatupu, in 2006 it was DeMeco Ryans and now this year David Harris has emerged as a stud in the middle for the Jets. The question now becomes who might follow in their footsteps and to be quite honest at this point I am not really sure that I see a senior prospect that is likely to be chosen outside of round one who is capable of having that type of impact. Now Dan Connor could conceivably fall to the 2nd round like his former teammate Paul Posluszny did a year ago and some teams will project him inside so he would probably be the top candidate but after him the pickings are slim. The only other remote possibility would be Vandy's Jonathan Goff but as much as I like him it doesn't appear as though the second round is in the cards for him, at least not right now. The junior class may provide some intriguing possibilities, with Rey Maualuga of USC, Darry Beckwith of L.S.U., and Curtis Lofton of Oklahoma all having Day One potential and the talent to make an impact right away but it will be interesting to see if this streak lives on in 2008. If nothing else it provides another example of how you don't have to be a first round pick to succeed in the NFL.  December 5th, 2007 • Lately there has been a lot of talk about Central Florida RB Kevin Smith as he goes for the single-season rushing record (he's currently 180 yards away from Barry Sanders mark of 2,628) but even though he is having a phenomenal season I am not sure he is the pro prospect that some are making him out to be. The big question with Smith is speed because coming out of high school he was only listed as a 4.69 guy at 192 pounds so I'm not sure how much faster he has gotten since then, especially after adding close to twenty pounds. It appears as though Smith, a junior, is leaning towards going pro early and it's hard to fault him for that considering the season he has had and the workload the Knights have saddled him with. There is a lot to like about Smith, most notably his size, power and vision, but at this point I just don't see him as a first round pick. However, depending on which other underclassmen runners opt to bolt I could see Smith coming off the board as early as the 2nd or 3rd round and he could be the type of guy who surprises and ends up being a steal for someone. I guess what I am trying to say is that even though you'll likely hear commentators talking Smith up as a very high draft pick over the next month or so you shouldn't necessarily believe the hype. Unless he runs a 4.4 that is...  December 4th, 2007 • On Draft Day teams and their fans are always looking for the next Joe Montana or Tom Brady, that quarterback taken after the first round who blossoms into a star. With the emergence of former 6th round pick Derek Anderson in Cleveland this year that discussion should be brought back to the forefront and there is actually a prospect in this draft who reminds me an awful lot of Anderson when he was coming out back in '05.   Just like Anderson during his days at Oregon St. Erik Ainge has had a star-crossed college career at Tennessee that has featured both flashes of brilliance as well as stretches of frustrating inconsistency. However like Anderson he also has all the physical tools you look for in a starting quarterback at the next level and if he can just develop a little more consistency there is a very good chance he could vastly outperform his draft slot. There are a lot of wide-ranging opinions when it comes to where Ainge will ultimately be selected, with some feeling he is worthy of consideration as early as the 1st round and others who feel he will only be a late rounder. Personally I feel he's worthy of consideration as early as round two and no later than round four but if I were to guess at this point it looks like the odds favor him falling a bit. If that does indeed wind up being the case I think the potential is there for him to be a major steal for someone.  December 3rd, 2007 • The college football regular season came to an end this past weekend and the bowl matchups were announced yesterday. If you happen to read this blog regularly you probably know that I am not a fan of the BCS and I think this year is a perfect example of how the system we have in place just does not work. Are Ohio St. and L.S.U. the two best teams in the country? Maybe and maybe not. The bottom line is nobody really knows and that is the problem. In fact, outside of Jim Tressel and Les Miles I think you'd probably have a pretty hard time finding anybody who is so supremely confident that those two are the best that they'd bet their house on it. Since we use subjective means, and essentially opinions, to select college football's national champion I figured I may as well put my two-cents into the argument as well. Here's how I rank the teams: The Elite   * Louisiana St.   There isn't a true superpower in college football this year but the Tigers are the closest thing we have. Sure they have two losses but they played a difficult schedule in the toughest, most competitve conference in the country and even won the SEC Championship and I think that has to be taken into account. This team is loaded and while they certainly aren't unbeatable I would have a hard time betting against them, regardless of who the opponent was. Ultimately I think the BCS system got it right by putting L.S.U. in the championship game, even though I don't like the round-about, convuluted way in which they did it. They're going to kill Ohio St. on January 7.   * Oklahoma   That early season loss to Colorado was pretty inexcusable but I have a hard time faulting the Sooners for their one touchdown loss to Texas Tech and when you think about it they actually did a good job of holding that prolific Red Raider offense to "only" 34 points. There might not be a more well-rounded team in the nation than Oklahoma when it comes to offense, defense and special teams and you have to give them a lot of credit for emerging as the champion of what turned out to be an extremely competitive Big 12 conference. Like everyone else the Sooners certainly have a wart or two but top to bottom I think you could easily make the case that they are the best team in the nation. In my humble opinion it should have been L.S.U. vs. Oklahoma in the BCS National Championship Game but for some reason nobody cared enough to ask me.   * Southern Cal   Before the season began the Trojans were everyone's favorite to win it all but for one reason or another they just haven't been able to put it all together. At least not yet. USC might still be the most talented team out there though and as the Pac-10 champion I would not have had a major problem if they had been given a title shot. It will be real interesting to see how they fare against Illinois in the Rose Bowl and if they blow out the team that beat Ohio St. at home late in the season there are going to be a bunch of people questioning the legitimacy of the Buckeyes championship game birth. Or should I say more than there are already ( if that's possible ) ... The 2nd Tier   * West Virginia   There is just no other way to say it, the Mountaineers simply choked against four touchdown underdog Pittsburgh. With that said West Virginia has yet to lose a game in which Pat White was healthy and if you can guarantee me he will play the entire game I'd feel like this team can hold their own against just about anyone. Despite that crushing loss to Pitt the Mountaineers did still win the Big East and while you can certainly make the case that some of the teams in that conference were overrated I am not so sure that the likes of Connecticut, Cincinnati, South Florida & Louisville are that much worse than some of those middle of the pack Big Ten teams.   * Ohio St.   Once again THE Ohio State benefited from the Big Ten not having a conference championship game, which allowed them to just sit back for a couple of weeks and watch teams that were ranked ahead of them get knocked off one by one. The downside of that however is that they will have a 50 day layoff between playing Michigan and taking on L.S.U. for the whole enchilada, which certainly didn't help them a year ago. I don't think this Ohio St. team is nearly as good as last year's version and even though the L.S.U. team they will take on may not be in quite the same league as the Florida team that blew them out either I anticipate a similar result. It's not going to be a 41-14 shellacking like last year but I do foresee the Tigers beating the Buckeyes by multiple touchdowns. The Big Ten has been vastly overrated the past couple of years and OSU is going to become the poster child for that, which may hurt their conference in the future.   * Virginia Tech   The Hokies did win the ACC but that doesn't carry quite the same weight as it did a few years ago. When it comes to defense and special teams VA Tech could hang with anyone but I just don't see them having enough offense (or consistent play from the quarterback position) to be a legit, top-level contender. The Hokies are a very good team but they definitely are not great.   * Georgia   L.S.U. leaping over Georgia in the final regular season polls even though the Bulldogs were ranked higher the previous week was controversial but it had to happen. You simply couldn't have a two loss team that didn't even play in their own conference championship game, let alone win it, have a chance to take home the big prize. That would have been the greatest sham of all. You can make the argument that Georgia is the hottest team in the country right now and that might be the case but in a non-playoff system that does not mean a whole lot.   * Missouri   I think the fact that Mizzou went into the Big 12 Championship game as underdogs despite being ranked #1 in the country at the time really speaks volumes. This is a very good team who I think could probably hold their own against anyone but they certainly aren't a great team and I highly doubt they could consistently beat any of the teams I have in my elite category above. The Pretenders   * Kansas   The Jayhawks didn't beat anyone of significance this year and they lost to the one truly legit opponent they played, Missouri. It was a Cinderella season for Kansas and they were a great story but I don't think anyone can say they are one of the premier teams in the country with a straight face. In fact, the Jayhawks may not even be the 3rd best team in their own conference.   * Arizona St.   The Sun Devils got off to a terrific start but they didn't really play anyone early in the season (unless you consider a 6-6 Cal team to be a tough test) and when dates against Oregon and USC came up on the schedule their true colors showed. This is a case of a team performing above most expectations but at the end of the day the substance just doesn't match the hype. The Wild Cards   * Hawaii   Their schedule was chock full of cupcakes and they still managed to struggle at times but the Warriors are the epitome of why we need a playoff system in college football. Is Hawaii an elite team? I don't think so. However in my opinion they are certainly capable of beating anyone on any given day because they can put points on the board with the best of them and more often than not that will help make up for a lot of other deficiencies. When examining the bowl game matchups I don't know if there is a contest I'm looking more forward to than Hawaii vs. Georgia in the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day and if they win it will be yet another nail in the BCS coffin.   * Florida   They did lose three times and weren't even a major factor in their own conference but is there anyone out there who doesn't think the Gators are capable of beating any team in the nation? This was supposed to be somewhat of a rebuilding year for Florida but I don't think pollsters aren't giving them nearly enough credit by ranking them outside of the Top 10 and if there was a playoff the Gators would be the popular pick to upset someone as people were filling out their brackets. Look out because Florida's going to be one of the best teams in the nation next year.
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