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Well, free agency just opened and my mock draft is already becoming obsolete...
Here are some of the early highlights:
* QB Derek Anderson re-signs with Cleveland
* DT Tommy Kelly re-signs with Oakland
* DT Corey Williams is traded to Cleveland
* DT Kris Jenkins is traded to the New York Jets
* LB Jonathan Vilma is traded to New Orleans
* DT Jason Ferguson is traded to Miami
* C Jeff Faine signs with Tampa Bay
* WR Devery Henderson signs with Tampa Bay
* S Madieu Williams signs with Minnesota
* FB Thomas Tapeh signs with Minnesota
* LB Kawika Mitchell signs with Buffalo
* WR Jerry Porter signs with Jacksonville
* QB Cleo Lemon signs with Jacksonville
* CB Asante Samuel is about to sign with Philadelphia
And that's just in the first twelve hours!!! As always free agency is going to have a huge effect on teams needs so make sure to pay very close attention to the NFL transaction wires over the weekend. These next few days are guaranteed to play a big role in shaping the 2008 NFL Draft.
February 28th, 2008
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Everyone knows that the Miami Dolphins want to get out of that #1 pick but the question has always been who wants to move up. The media has speculated that Jerry Jones is itching to give up the farm to get Darren McFadden but I think that is more smoke than fire and I doubt the Dolphins would want to drop down into the twenties even if he did. The most logical deal would in fact be with Atlanta, assuming of course that the Falcons have their sights set on Matt Ryan. In fact, I think all of the talk about Miami being interested in Ryan themselves may just be a devious smokescreen to scare the Falcons into making a deal rather than risk missing out on the signal caller they so desperately need. A Miami / Atlanta deal could work well for both sides.
According on the trade chart that teams use to determine the value of picks on Draft Day there is an 800 point difference between the #1 and #3 selections. Based on that Atlanta could get up to #1 by sending Miami their 2nd and 3rd rounders, which would still leave the Falcons with the mid-2nd rounder that they acquired in the Matt Schaub trade a year ago. Also, if they opt to deal DeAngelo Hall they would probably pick up another 1st or 2nd rounder as well. Now I know Falcon fans aren't enamored with Matt Ryan and don't want their team to take him at #3 let alone trade up for him but if he is the guy Atlanta wants they may have to pull the trigger on a deal like this. From Miami's perspective I think it would be a no-brainer as it allows them to pick up a couple more valuable draft picks that would likely be starters for them and still land Chris Long, Jake Long, Vernon Gholston or Sedrick Ellis at #3 overall. Everybody wins with that deal.
February 27th, 2008
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When it comes to being the subject of my blog entries Tennessee St. cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie may be setting a record but I can't help it, he just keeps doing great things!
I was actually on the D.R.C. bandwagon very early on in the draft process, which is why I chose him as one of the first prospects I wanted to interview way back in November of '07. Since then his stock has been soaring and at this point it looks like he is a lock for round one. First he came through with a standout performance at the Senior Bowl and then yesterday he blew up at the Scouting Combine, running a 4.33 forty and absolutely killing all of the positional drills. When I reworked my rankings after getting back from Mobile earlier this month I moved D.R.C. up to #4 in my cornerback rankings and I really wanted to put him higher but I also didn't want to go overboard so I played it safe. After what he did in Indy I give in. When I update my rankings again in the next couple of days he will be my #2 ranked cornerback and I'm not so sure he doesn't have more long-term potential than any cover guy in this draft. I think by now everyone has a pretty good idea of what his strengths and weaknesses are and if not you can check out my scouting report but one of the things I like most about D.R.C. is that not only is he a ballhawk in the secondary but he's a threat to take it all the way back once he does get his hands on the ball. One of the things that make guys like Deion Sanders and D.R.C.'s cousin Antonio Cromartie so special is that they scare people. Sure a guy like Deion and Antonio will blanket a receiver in coverage but what really sets them apart is their ability to strike fear in the hearts of quarterbacks and basically make them not even want to look their way. Throwing an interception is bad enough but when you know there's a good chance the corner will not only pick it off but then take it to the house for six they figure it just isn't worth the risk most of the time. That is what made "Primetime" one of the best to ever play the game and D.R.C. has that type of ability. Now I'm not saying that he is going to be as good as Deion but Rodgers-Cromartie could eventually be as good as his cousin and I promise you every team in the league would love to have him on their side. If it sounds like I am gushing it's probably because I am but D.R.C. is one of my favorite players in this draft and I just see big things in his future. Back in 2006 I had Antonio Cromartie as my #1 rated cornerback and the 10th best player overall when most didn't have him nearly that high and I'm getting that same vibe with D.R.C. There will be teams who regret passing on this guy.
February 26th, 2008
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I think I might have to eat some crow.
For months now I have been maintaining that Chris Long was not a candidate to play outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme but after seeing him work out at the Combine yesterday let's just say I am "reevaluating" that opinion. In my defense it was real difficult to evaluate Long as a potential linebacker prospect because in the 3-4 scheme he played in at Virginia he was used primarily as a 5-technique and very rarely stood up or played in space. However at the Scouting Combine the 6-3, 272 lb. Long looked outstanding in basically everything he did and aside from his 4.75 forty time, the 34-inch vertical and the 10'4" broad jump what impressed me most was how fluid and agile he looked in the drills. Now if I am evaluating him as strictly a 3-4 outside linebacker I think Vernon Gholston would get the edge but it's pretty darn close. Long did not go through all of the linebacker drills in Indy and will wait for his Pro Day on March 18 to do that but he did enough to convince me that he can successfully make that transition at the next level and that might ultimately be the most important thing I will take away from this year's Combine.
February 25th, 2008
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There are always some prospects who surprise and some who perform poorly at the Scouting Combine but Michigan wide receiver Mario Manningham probably qualifies for both categories.
I think Mike Mayock of the NFL Network put it best when he said most of us thought Manningham could "get out of bed and run a 4.4" but that was not the case in Indy. In fact, depending on whose stop-watch you go by the former Wolverine might not have even cracked the 4.5 mark!!! Unofficially Manningham ran anywhere from 4.59 to 4.68 but even if you give him the benefit of the doubt and say it was a 4.59 that is a terrible time for him. It's never good sign when guys like Limas Sweed and James Hardy, who weigh almost forty pounds more than you, run better times but for a player like Manningham who is known as a vertical threat it hurts that much more. A week ago Manningham was in contention to be the first wideout selected but now he's fighting for a spot in round one. Manningham did look pretty good in the rest of the drills but he'll have to really improve on that forty time at Michigan's Pro Day if he hopes reestablish himself as a Top 3 receiver in this draft.
February 22nd, 2008
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The NFL held a coin toss this morning to determine the order of the 3-5 picks in the '08 Draft, which means we finally know who will be picking where in round one. The Atlanta Falcons were the big winners and they will be selecting 3rd, followed by the Oakland Raiders at No. 4 and the Kansas City Chiefs at No. 5. This could obviously have huge Draft Day ramifications so here is a look at how the results of this coin-flip may potentially affect the four teams involved on April 26.
#3: Atlanta Falcons - It's always good to win so saying that this was a best-case scenario for Atlanta is simply stating the obvious but here is why the Falcons should be pretty happy right now. First of all it puts them in the best position possible to land Boston College QB Matt Ryan and if want to try and move up for him they now have a better bargaining chip than they would have had they lost the toss. Also, at least 2 of the 4 players they figure to be targeting (Ryan, Glenn Dorsey, Jake Long, and Darren McFadden) are guaranteed to be available when they are on the clock. On a side note, if the New York Giants do indeed offer the #31 pick for DeAngelo Hall the Falcons should jump on it, assuming they are dead-set on moving one of the Top 10 cover guys in the league that is. There should be plenty of good cornerbacks still on the board in late Round 1 (Brandon Flowers? Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie? Patrick Lee?) so they would be in good position to replace Hall with that final pick of the first frame. Also, if they miss out on Matt Ryan at #3 or decide they want to go in a different direction with that pick they could then always come back and grab Delaware's Joe Flacco at #31 if they are indeed as high on him as some reports have indicated. The bottom line is that winning this toss was very good for Atlanta.
#4: Oakland Raiders - There's no denying that the Raiders would have been in a much better position to address a need at #3 but losing the coin toss isn't necessarily the end of the world. Assuming Chris Long will chosen in the first couple of picks, which is a pretty good bet at this point, the three guys Oakland will likely be targeting are Glenn Dorsey, Jake Long and Darren McFadden. The problem is Atlanta is also looking at all of those players so the Raiders could be at the mercy of the Falcons and be forced to pick from whatever is left. In the end I don't think picking 4th instead of 3rd will be a major hindrance to Oakland but that possibility is out there.
#5: Kansas City Chiefs - It's pretty hard to imagine their top target Jake Long getting past Miami, St. Louis, Atlanta and Oakland so the Chiefs are not in a great position. It seems like a foregone conclusion that Kansas City is going to take an offensive lineman here so unless Long miraculously falls to them or they trade up they might be forced to reach a little for Ryan Clady.
February 21st, 2008
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The 2008 Scouting Combine is officially underway and as always it should be a fun weekend. Lately I have been getting a lot of questions about the biggest things I will be looking forward to seeing in Indy this year so I figured I'd just address it here. Keep in mind that as of now I have no reason to believe any of these guys I am about to mention won't fully participate in the workouts and drills, although knowing my luck with this type of thing they will all come down with some sort of "injury" and opt to wait for their Pro Days. With that disclaimer out of the way here are the two biggest storylines that I will be anxiously waiting to see unfold this weekend:
Mike Jenkins vs. Aqib Talib
Nobody doubts Leodis McKelvin's speed so his place among the Top 2-3 cornerbacks is secure but both Mike Jenkins and Aqib Talib still have some questions to answer in that department. Neither is expected to be a true blazer so anything under a 4.50 should suffice and of the two Jenkins has the best shot at cracking that mark and putting up the best time. Talib's situation is going to be interesting to watch though and personally I think he's going to be a mid-4.5 guy, which is why I've been relatively conservative with where I have him in my rankings and mock drafts. If he can come in with a 4.4 though the Top 10-15 overall should be within reach. I have a sneaky suspicion that Talib won't run in Indy and if that turns out to be the case it should be a huge warning sign. How well they run the forty could determine whether Jenkins and Talib go in the top half of the first round to a team like New England, Baltimore, New Orleans, Detroit or Arizona or maybe fall to the bottom half of the round. Millions of dollars are on the line. Literally
Jonathan Stewart vs. Rashard Mendenhall
It's pretty clear to almost everyone (I'm talking to you Mike Mayock) that Darren McFadden is the #1 running back in this class but there is still some debate as to who is #2. It appears to be a Jonathan Stewart / Rashard Mendenhall battle at this point with Felix Jones trying to get in the conversation and workouts are probably going to play a huge role in ultimately separating those three. Both Stewart and Mendenhall have excellent size so if one of them ends up being significantly faster than the other that could tip the scales in their favor. A couple of months ago most felt that Stewart would easily smoke Mendenhall in a forty-yard race but after seeing the Illinois star outrun an extremely athletic USC defense in the Rose Bowl that might not be such a slam-dunk. Hopefully these two opt to run in Indy because it just may be the battle of the year.
February 20th, 2008
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One player who might be getting overrated by the media and draftniks at this point is Malcolm Kelly. Some have him going as high as #11 overall to Buffalo and he'll more than likely come off the board in round one but that is not a sure-thing just yet. In fact, Kelly received a 2nd round projection from the NFL's Underclassmen Advisory Panel and his coaches at Oklahoma told him they thought he'd be a 3rd or 4th round pick this year. If Kelly really wants to solidify himself as one of the top wideouts in this draft and a Top 15-20 overall pick he will need to run well at the Scouting Combine and in workouts. Now that doesn't mean he has to blaze a 4.3 but anything below a 4.50 will probably be considered a disappointment and based on the information out there that might even be a stretch for him. One thing working in Kelly's favor though is his size (6-4, 219) because while DeSean Jackson and Mario Manningham, two of his main competitors at the wide receiver position, are both on the smaller side Kelly has the frame to be a legitimate #1 target at the next level. If Kelly is going to come off the board as high as some think he will have to showcase at least adequate wheels because in the last six years only three wideouts with questionable timed speed have gone in the Top 15 (Reggie Williams, Michael Clayton and Mike Williams) and in the interest of being nice let's just say their careers were... unimpressive.
The bottom line is if Malcolm can run a 4.50 or less he will be in contention for a spot in the top half of round one. However, anything worse than that and he is all of the sudden in competition with other big, slow pass catchers like Limas Sweed and James Hardy and is more of a late first.
February 19th, 2008
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Everyone seems to agree that Jake Long is the best offensive tackle available for the '08 NFL Draft but he probably isn't the best left tackle available. In fact, Long is actually similar to Levi Brown in that he could play the left side but his best fit in the NFL will likely be as a right tackle.
The best pure left tackle available this year is actually Ryan Clady of Boise State and that could translate into big bucks for him on Draft Day. You can check out my scouting report for a look at his strengths and weaknesses but he has a rare blend of size and athleticism and is essentially a prototypical NFL left tackle. Jake Long is going to come off the board very early and if he goes to Saint Louis, Atlanta or Oakland don't be surprised if Kansas City jumps all over Clady at #5. Would that be a slight reach? Perhaps. However Clady is pretty widely regarded to be a Top 10 overall talent and there is little or no question that the Chiefs most pressing need is along the offensive line so it could be a situation similar to what the Arizona Cardinals faced in that same #5 slot with Levi Brown a year ago. Even if he does get by Kansas City he isn't going to fall far and I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up being one of the few prospects who teams actively pursued trading up for. So keep an eye on Ryan Clady because even though he isn't necessarily the flashiest prospect out there he may end up being one of the most coveted come April 26th.
February 18th, 2008
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North Carolina State's DaJuan Morgan could end up being the first true safety drafted in April.
I say "true" safety because Reggie Smith of Oklahoma will likely go higher but he is a corner / safety 'tweener. Personally I still feel Kenny Phillips is the top safety in this draft but Morgan is making a push up draft boards and if he works out well there is reason to believe he could soar to the top of the rankings at his position. At 6-1 and 200 lbs. with reported 4.4 speed Morgan certainly has the triangle numbers that you look for and he is also a terrific athlete. Morgan is still raw after starting his college career on offense but he has great range and after leading the Wolfpack in tackles (97) this past year as a junior it seems like his best football is still ahead of him. In some ways Morgan reminds me of Sean Jones, who was a high 2nd round pick of the Browns in 2004, and he could come off the board in that same general area on Draft Day '08.
February 15th, 2008
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The Raiders have agreed to a new contract with Justin Fargas, which raises some questions.
With LaMont Jordan all but gone, Dominic Rhodes on the bubble and Fargas set to hit the open market Oakland had a lot of question marks at the running back position but now that Fargas is back in the fold, along with a healthy Michael Bush, you have to think the chances of Oakland selecting Darren McFadden have now gone way down. However, even though Fargas played real well down the stretch last year he is far from a proven commodity and durability is still an issue for him, which is why I wouldn't completely rule out McFadden just yet. So if they don't take a running back in round one what position might the Raiders turn their attention to? Pending the result of a coin flip later this month Oakland will either have the #3 or #4 overall pick and regardless of that outcome they should be in good position to address a need with a great player. With the retirement of Warren Sapp I think defensive tackle probably sits atop their list of weaknesses so if Glenn Dorsey were to fall into their laps he'd sure make a ton of sense. Heck, I wouldn't even rule out Sedrick Ellis either. Offensive tackle is also a need and Jake Long would be a major upgrade for them at right tackle, where Cornell Green left a lot to be desired. Or how about Chris Long? Granted defensive end may not be their #1 need but everyone knows how much Al Davis liked his dad Howie... And then as I said there is always McFadden. If I were to handicap the Raiders draft board I would probably have to put Glenn Dorsey at the top, followed by Jake Long, Chris Long and then McFadden. Oakland is always one of the least predictable teams on Draft Day and this year probably won't be any different.
February 14th, 2008
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Baltimore needs to trade for Derek Anderson.
With an aging defense the Ravens are clearly a team built to win now and their window is closing fast. Despite that 5-11 record in 2007 Baltimore really isn't that bad of a team and with even average play from the quarterback position they would be legitimate playoff contenders. It is pretty clear that there is no chance of Boston College's Matt Ryan falling into their laps at #8 overall so why reach for a guy like Brian Brohm when for about the same money contract-wise you can get a semi-proven commodity? Now Donovan McNabb would do the trick too but I think Anderson would be a better fit for Baltimore because he is much younger. The ironic thing here is that Anderson was once property of the Ravens (they selected him in the 6th round of the 2005 NFL Draft) but they released him. From a public relations standpoint it won't look good to trade a package of valuable draft picks for a guy you just gave away for nothing a couple of years ago but they can't let that enter their thought process. They need to just bite the bullet and do it. I am not sold on Anderson repeating the fantastic season he just had which is why I think it's in Cleveland's best interests to strike while the iron is hot and deal him now but at the same time you do not get many chances to land a 24-year-old starting quarterback coming off a Pro Bowl season so if I am the Ravens I'll take that risk. I wouldn't give up that Top 10 pick for him but a package similar to what the Texans gave Atlanta for Matt Schaub last year (two 2nd round picks and change) sounds realistic and fair for both sides. It's time to get it done Ravens!
February 13th, 2008
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I know I wrote about the Miami Dolphins yesterday but they do have the #1 overall pick and there is some more news that I think deserves mention. According to reports Virginia DE Chris Long has now become the front-runner to be the Dolphins top pick. That's not a shock to those who follow this site because I have had Long going #1 to Miami in my mock draft for well over a month now but even though it's still early that sure would seem to make the most sense for the Dolphins. First of all let me make it clear that I fully expect Miami to do everything they can to try and trade down but there probably won't be a big market for that top spot so if they are forced to make a pick everything seems to add up to Chris Long.
First and foremost Bill Parcells is, and always has been, a defensive guy so right off the bat you can probably eliminate all of the offensive prospects with the exception of Jake Long. Next you have to look at their scheme and if they ran a 4-3 Glenn Dorsey would almost undoubtedly be a heavy favorite but unfortunately for him the Dolphins run a 3-4 and he just isn't a good fit for that style of defense. On the other hand Chris Long is a perfect fit and he actually played in a 3-4 scheme in college for Parcells friend / protégé Al Groh at Virginia. And the final factor that really puts Long over the top is his makeup and intangibles. There are players in this draft who have more pure talent but there isn't anyone who has a better motor or work ethic than Chris Long and that will go a long way towards earning the respect and adoration of Parcells. So even though Miami may have more pressing needs than defensive end and even though Long isn't necessarily a "sexy" #1 overall pick from a fan base perspective he almost has to be considered the favorite right now.
February 12th, 2008
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There was a "Miami Massacre" yesterday!
Bill Parcells isn't wasting any time and his effort to rebuild the Dolphins roster began in earnest with the release of a number of big-name veterans. Among the nine guys recently cut by Miami were quarterback Trent Green, wide receiver Marty Booker, right tackle L.J. Shelton, and nose tackle Keith Traylor. The move that really stands out from a draft perspective is Shelton, as well as his top backup Anthony Alabi, being shown the door and you have to think that will just raise the profile of Jake Long within the organization. Also, with Green now officially out of the picture Matt Ryan could get a long look if they aren't sold on John Beck and if they feel that either Glenn Dorsey or Sedrick Ellis can be an effective 3-4 nose tackle they will likely be among the favorites to be Miami's top pick. This is just the beginning of a very busy time of the year and needs for each team could be changing on an almost daily basis. In other words what looks to be a logical player / team match might not stay that way for very long. Stay tuned, the fun is just beginning!
February 11th, 2008
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I am still in the process of inputting all of my scouting reports (there are about 100 finished) and one of the most recent additions was Darren McFadden. The reason his report gets special mention is because he is the one and only prospect in this class who is receiving my coveted 5-Star grade that carries with it the "Elite" label. At least initially. I certainly reserve the right to bump others players up a star or maybe even knock McFadden down a notch but at this point he stands all alone in my top ranking tier, with Glenn Dorsey and Jake Long just off the pace.
As those who have followed this site over the years already know I am pretty stingy with that "Elite" label and in the past two years combined only nine players have received it, five in 2006 (Reggie Bush, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Mario Williams, Matt Leinart and Vernon Davis) and four in 2007 (Calvin Johnson, Brady Quinn, Adrian Peterson and Joe Thomas). Now that's not to say there aren't some outstanding players in the Class of '08 because there are, it's just that in my opinion McFadden's the only one I envision being one of the truly special players at his position.
Be sure to check out McFadden's report and look for hundreds more in the coming weeks.
February 8th, 2008
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One of the things that struck me while working on my latest mock draft was how hard it was to fit all of the worthy running backs into the first round. The general consensus is that Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall and Felix Jones are all legitimate first round talents but there is a chance that one, or perhaps even two, of them will fall out of round one.
We all know how big of a role "need" plays in the NFL Draft these days and the bottom line is there just aren't many teams with unsettled running back situations right now. In fact, in my team needs feature only five have running back listed among their three most glaring weaknesses and for four of them it rates 3 out of 3. We all know that McFadden is going to go very high but when it boils right down to it none of the other three top runners are guaranteed a spot in round one at this point. Needless to say workouts are going to be very important for Stewart, Mendenhall and Jones and there could wind up being a huge difference between being the #2 ranked running back and #4. So who might be the odd man out and what will be the keys for each of them? I'd have to say that Jones is on the shakiest ground because he doesn't have great size and was never really "the guy" in college, playing second fiddle to McFadden. On the other hand Stewart has some questions to answer about his speed and durability while Mendenhall was only a one-year wonder and may not be a 4.4 guy either. Of course there is always the possibility of a team throwing need out the window and selecting a running back simply because he's the best player available, a la the Vikings last year with Adrian Peterson, but for the most part that's the exception and not the rule. It'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out over the next couple months but at this point my guess is one of these guys is gonna be disappointed on Draft Day.
February 7th, 2008
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You have probably heard me and others talk about players getting "pushed up" draft boards, especially when it comes to quarterbacks. What this basically refers to is players being chosen earlier than their talent would normally indicate due to a lack of depth and / or quality at their position or simple team need. Last year we saw it with Levi Brown, who I doubt was the 5th best player in the entire draft on many teams boards, and this time around we could see it with cornerbacks. Regardless of how the final rankings of the top corner prospects ultimately turn out there is a good chance that none of them will be technically graded as a Top 10 overall pick. However, New England at #7, Baltimore at #8 and New Orleans at #10 all have serious issues at the position and each could be looking at taking a cover guy with their top pick. At this point I think there is probably a good chance that at least one of those teams will pull the trigger on a corner and if more than one decide that's the position they want to address we could see some prospects getting overdrafted. That's good news for Leodis McKelvin, Mike Jenkins & Aqib Talib.
February 6th, 2008
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Why am I the only one who is so high on Kenny Phillips?
Granted he did not have the type of huge junior season most were expecting but that entire Hurricane team struggled and at least statistically his 2007 campaign wasn't that terrible. I just can't wrap my head around it when I see some people who don't even have Phillips as a first round pick. In my humble opinion not only is Phillips a sure-fire first rounder but he's a Top 20 pick. First of all Phillips is a top-notch athlete and coming out of high school he was rated by Rivals.com as the #1 safety in the entire country and the #12 prospect overall. Not only did Phillips step in and start right away for Miami but he was one of the premier safeties in college football almost from day one. You also can't discount the program pedigree and when it comes to producing top pro safeties nobody does it better than the Canes, dating back to Bennie Blades back in the late-80's and more recently Ed Reed and Sean Taylor. And the last factor that is important to consider is how weak this year's safety crop is. In my view Phillips is far and away the best player available at his position and after him there will not be another pure safety chosen until round two and maybe even round three. In other words if you miss out on Phillips you may have a hard time addressing the safety position in this draft. I guess we will see where Kenny Phillips ultimately lands on Draft Day but if he does fall out of the first round like some are projecting he is going to be a major steal for someone. I would be pretty shocked if that actually happened though.
February 5th, 2008
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In case you missed it the list of players invited to the Scouting Combine was just released. As always there were some guys that are not going who, in my opinion, definitely deserved to be there. Not being invited isn't the end of the world though and some recent examples of that are Willie Colon (Round 4 in '06) and Usama Young (Round 3 in '07). In fact, it is a little known fact that on average about 13-15% of the prospects drafted every year did not attend the Combine.
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It's time for everyone to get off Eli Manning's back. Permanently.
Over the years Manning has taken a lot of flack around the nation and from Giants fans and some of it was certainly deserved but he also led his team to the playoffs in each of his three full seasons as a starting quarterback in the NFL. Granted it hasn't always been pretty at times and I know I've made more than one reference to "Good Eli and Bad Eli" but it's hard to argue with the results, especially now that he has not only led his team to a Super Bowl but was the MVP to boot. I have always liked Eli but despite his amazing performance in the playoffs even I wasn't fully convinced that he had really turned the corner. That changed during the last couple of minutes in Glendale last night though. Down four points against a team some were calling the best ever with a defensive genius at the helm the 27-year-old Manning methodically led his offense down the field on a 12-play, 83-yard game-winning drive. Sure there were a couple of questionable throws mixed in there but the bottom line is he got the job done.
Now I'm not fitting Eli for a yellow jacket and a bust in Canton just yet but when you really think about it I'm not so sure he isn't one of the Top 5 quarterbacks in football right now. After Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre and maybe Carson Palmer is there another signal caller you'd rather have either short or long-term than Eli? You can probably make a case for some guys (Drew Brees, Matt Hasslebeck, Marc Bulger, Ben Roethlisberger, possibly Tony Romo) but at the end of the day I'm not so sure Eli doesn't get the nod... And if he keeps playing like he did in the playoffs the discussion is over. Think about it and vote in the poll on the main page.
And finally, just to toot my own horn a little bit, three of the top four quarterbacks that I have graded coming out of college since I launched the website back in 1997 have now won Super Bowls: #1 Peyton Manning, #3 Eli Manning and #4 Ben Roethlisberger. Cleveland Browns fans should be rooting for my streak to continue since #2 is Brady Quinn. It's just a matter of time...
February 1st, 2008
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What better way to start off a new month than with a mock draft update!
Not only does the new mock feature a bunch of post-Senior Bowl changes but for the first time this year I also added a second round. I offer explanations for each of the picks in the actual mock so rather than rehash a bunch of that stuff in this blog I'll just let you read it for yourself.
Instead I will use this space to highlight a guy who people might not know a lot about but is making his first round debut today and he will probably go a whole lot higher than most think.
Virginia offensive guard Branden Albert entered the draft after his junior season for the Cavs and it looks like that is going to end up being a good decision. Not only is Albert probably going to be the first player chosen at his position but he has a legitimate shot at sneaking into the first round, which is quite an accomplishment for a guard. A lightly-regarded recruit who might have been better known for his exploits as a basketball player coming out of high school, Albert spent a year at Hargrave Military Academy before eventually ending up at Virginia. A three-year starter (36 games) and team captain, Albert was a third-team All-American at left guard in 2007 but he also started a couple of games at left tackle for a injured Eugene Monroe this year and could potentially project inside or outside at the next level. At 6-7 and 310 lbs. Albert has outstanding size and that versatility should only add to his value.
Note: If you want to discuss the mock or see what others are saying stop by the NFLDC Forums!
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I was actually on the D.R.C. bandwagon very early on in the draft process, which is why I chose him as one of the first prospects I wanted to 
I think Mike Mayock of the NFL Network put it best when he said most of us thought Manningham could "get out of bed and run a 4.4" but that was not the case in Indy. In fact, depending on whose stop-watch you go by the former Wolverine might not have even cracked the 4.5 mark!!! Unofficially Manningham ran anywhere from 4.59 to 4.68 but even if you give him the benefit of the doubt and say it was a 4.59 that is a terrible time for him. It's never good sign when guys like Limas Sweed and James Hardy, who weigh almost forty pounds more than you, run better times but for a player like Manningham who is known as a vertical threat it hurts that much more. A week ago Manningham was in contention to be the first wideout selected but now he's fighting for a spot in round one. Manningham did look pretty good in the rest of the drills but he'll have to really improve on that forty time at Michigan's Pro Day if he hopes reestablish himself as a Top 3 receiver in this draft.
I say "true" safety because Reggie Smith of Oklahoma will likely go higher but he is a corner / safety 'tweener. Personally I still feel Kenny Phillips is the top safety in this draft but Morgan is making a push up draft boards and if he works out well there is reason to believe he could soar to the top of the rankings at his position. At 6-1 and 200 lbs. with reported 4.4 speed Morgan certainly has the triangle numbers that you look for and he is also a terrific athlete. Morgan is still raw after starting his college career on offense but he has great range and after leading the Wolfpack in tackles (97) this past year as a junior it seems like his best football is still ahead of him. In some ways Morgan reminds me of Sean Jones, who was a high 2nd round pick of the Browns in 2004, and he could come off the board in that same general area on Draft Day '08.
First and foremost Bill Parcells is, and always has been, a defensive guy so right off the bat you can probably eliminate all of the offensive prospects with the exception of Jake Long. Next you have to look at their scheme and if they ran a 4-3 Glenn Dorsey would almost undoubtedly be a heavy favorite but unfortunately for him the Dolphins run a 3-4 and he just isn't a good fit for that style of defense. On the other hand Chris Long is a perfect fit and he actually played in a 3-4 scheme in college for Parcells friend / protégé Al Groh at Virginia. And the final factor that really puts Long over the top is his makeup and intangibles. There are players in this draft who have more pure talent but there isn't anyone who has a better motor or work ethic than Chris Long and that will go a long way towards earning the respect and adoration of Parcells. So even though Miami may have more pressing needs than defensive end and even though Long isn't necessarily a "sexy" #1 overall pick from a fan base perspective he almost has to be considered the favorite right now.
We all know how big of a role "need" plays in the NFL Draft these days and the bottom line is there just aren't many teams with unsettled running back situations right now. In fact, in my 
Granted he did not have the type of huge junior season most were expecting but that entire Hurricane team struggled and at least 
Over the years Manning has taken a lot of flack around the nation and from Giants fans and some of it was certainly deserved but he also led his team to the playoffs in each of his three full seasons as a starting quarterback in the NFL. Granted it hasn't always been pretty at times and I know I've made more than one reference to "Good Eli and Bad Eli" but it's hard to argue with the results, especially now that he has not only led his team to a Super Bowl but was the MVP to boot. I have always liked Eli but despite his amazing performance in the playoffs even I wasn't fully convinced that he had really turned the corner. That changed during the last couple of minutes in Glendale last night though. Down four points against a team some were calling the best ever with a defensive genius at the helm the 27-year-old Manning methodically led his offense down the field on a 12-play, 83-yard game-winning drive. Sure there were a couple of questionable throws mixed in there but the bottom line is he got the job done.
Virginia offensive guard