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There was some interesting news out of Auburn today when it was announced that Quentin Groves will be moving to outside linebacker for the rest of the season after playing defensive end his entire career. He will still see some action up front in certain situations but the move should help Groves when it comes to his pro career because it will give scouts some live game film to evaluate his ability to play standing up, which more than likely factored into the decision.
Groves, who should be Auburn's all-time sack leader by the time his college career is finished (he is currently tied for the top spot with 26), doesn't have the ideal size that you look for in a pro defensive end at 6-3 and 254 lbs. but he is a tremendous athlete who knows how to get after the quarterback and should see his stock soar if he is able to run the 4.4 forty that has been rumored. Ten or fifteen years ago Groves would have been labeled a 'tweener and fallen to the mid or late rounds but with the rise of the 3-4 defense there is now a home for a player with his rare / unique physical tools and he could be a real weapon at outside linebacker in that scheme. It will be very interesting to see how he takes to his new position but at least now we aren't going to have to rely solely on the All-Star games and Combine positional drills to gauge his aptitude. One way or another we are soon going to know what Groves' best pro position is.
October 30th, 2007
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Everyone knows that injuries are just a part of the game but it sure seems like an inordinate number of senior prospects have gone down for the count recently. Here is a look at the latest additions to the infirmary with analysis on how their health status might affect their draft stock:
* Sam Keller, QB, Nebraska If you've followed this site over the past year or so you probably know that I am a fan of Keller's and feel he is an underrated pro prospect so I was obviously dismayed to see him go down with a shoulder injury, which is reportedly a broken collarbone. This means that Keller has yet to play a full season at the college level, with a thumb injury prematurely ending his season (and ultimately his career at Arizona St.) in 2005 and now this latest setback shutting him down as a senior. This is obviously not good news for Keller but just how much it will hurt his draft stock will depend on how quickly he can get healthy. However, even if he can recover in time to take part in the postseason All-Star games and work out for teams odds are Keller will likely fall to at least the fourth round considering his durability issues, lack of experience and the great depth at the quarterback position this year. If that is indeed the case my pick for who could be this year's surprise late round signal caller (or as I like to call it "The Tom Brady Award") will be the easiest yet. He's not a finished product or a sure-thing by any stretch of the imagination but there is just something about Sam Keller and he reminds of me guys like Favre, Cutler & Romo.
* Ryan Torain, RB, Arizona St. After undergoing surgery to repair torn tissue that is connected to the big toe in his left foot (i.e. the dreaded "Lisfranc," injury) Torain's draft status is very much up in the air. Prior to this setback Torain was an interesting prospect in a less than stellar crop of senior running backs and it wasn't a stretch to think that he could have been one of the first seniors chosen at his position. As it stands now Torain will almost certainly be unable to play in any of the All-Star games and he might not even be able to work out for teams prior to the draft, which would obviously have an adverse effect on his stock. Until there are some more definitive answers on his health Torain is probably, at best, a fourth rounder and he could even slip into the later rounds depending on his medical reports, at which point he'd be a potential steal for someone.
* Eric Young, OG, Tennessee A poor-man's Arron Sears who was playing left tackle as a senior but will probably have to move inside to guard at the next level, Young tore the quadriceps muscle in his left leg against South Carolina and will require surgery. Regarded by many as the top senior offensive guard available for the 2008 NFL Draft, it remains to be seen what the long-term prognosis will be for Young but his status will bear watching as he could go as high as the second round if healthy.
* Heath Benedict, OT, Newberry Potentially one of the top sleeper prospects available, Benedict recently broke his right foot, which is already the second injury to that general area in less than a year for him after he had offseason surgery for a right ankle ailment. All indications are that Benedict will recover in time for All-Star games and workouts which will be absolutely crucial since his relatively high grade is essentially tied to his athleticism and rumored sub-4.9 forty time. Assuming he is healthy the 6-6, 320lb. Benedict could go somewhere between Rounds 3-5 depending on how well he tests.
For those who are counting that is four prospects who have / had top three round potential who've gone down for the season in just the last week or two. For some these injuries won't have any affect on them when Draft Day rolls around and for others it will play a major role in where they are chosen. Hopefully all of them will make a full recovery in time to work out and impress scouts but be sure to keep a close eye on their status over the next 3-4 months or so.
October 29th, 2007
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This past weekend I had the chance to see one of the best teams in Division II football play when North Dakota traveled to take on Minnesota-Duluth, with the Sioux winning by a score of 31-14. As always I was looking for potential pro prospects and while there wasn't too much to get excited about among the seniors I did notice one youngster who I think we will be talking about as an interesting sleeper a few years down the line.
North Dakota, a traditional DII power, has a redshirt sophomore running back by the name of Ryan Chappell who was very impressive. Chappell is one of the nation's leaders in rushing yards so the production is there but one of the biggest things I always look for when evaluating non-Division I teams is players who appear to just be on another level and that is certainly the case with Chappell. At 5-11 and 193 lbs. he is solidly built and should be able to add some more weight over the next few years but what really sets him apart is his burst and reported 4.33 speed. A prolific athlete out of Grand Forks Central High School, in addition to his football exploits Chappell also starred in track, becoming the North Dakota state champion in the 300 hurdles, 110 hurdles, the 100 meter and 200 meter while setting a number of state records. When it comes to football Chappell is a big play waiting to happen and he just looks the part, with a long gliding running style and the ability to not only turn the corner but be effective up the middle as well. The kid is simply a great athlete and you can tell he is different from everyone else on the field by how he moves and carries himself. It's a tough quality to define but you know it when you see it and Chappell has "It". By the time his college career's finished Ryan Chappell will likely be one of the premier running backs in Division II football (if he isn't already) and I could definitely see him getting a chance to play at the next level, even if only in a backup or situational role, so keep an eye on him for the 2010 NFL Draft.
October 26th, 2007
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Everyone knows that when it comes to running backs the 2008 NFL Draft will rely heavily on underclassmen and there probably won't be a senior chosen in the first round. That doesn't mean there isn't talent out there though and a guy who is really impressing scouts and quickly moving up draft boards around the league is Tulane's Matt Forté, who has been putting up some unreal numbers for the Green Wave (303 yds. vs. SE Louisiana, 202 yds. vs. Army, 209 yds. vs. UAB and most recently 342 yds. vs. SMU) and as a result he should now be among the initial handful of seniors chosen at his position come next April.
The 6-2, 223 lb. Forté, who is very quietly leading the nation in rushing with an average of 180 yards per game, appears to be a classic 'tweener since he isn't quite fast enough (4.6+ forty) to be a true running back at the next level and isn't a good enough blocker to be a true fullback. However, even though he may not stand out in any one area Forté is an extremely versatile all-around offensive weapon who can do a little bit of everything (run/catch/block) which is why he has been drawing comparisons to Brian Leonard, albeit a very poor-man's version of the former Rutgers star. Forté isn't going to match Leonard, who was a 2nd round pick by the Rams, on Draft Day but he has definitely put himself in contention for a spot in the middle rounds and could play in the NFL for a long time as a backup, potentially following the career path of a guy like Robert Holcombe.
October 25th, 2007
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In case you didn't know there's a big college football game tonight!
Matt Ryan will take his #2 Boston College team into Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech and this is the type of game that could really solidify Ryan as the top rated senior quarterback prospect for the 2008 NFL Draft. Granted you can't base an entire evaluation on just one game but I know I am very interested to see how Ryan will perform on a national stage, in front of a very hostile crowd and against an extremely talented Hokie defense that just happens to feature 2 future pros cornerbacks in Brandon Flowers and Macho Harris. There are a lot of other good prospects on the field as well but Ryan is the guy I will be watching and if you're a draftnik this is a "can't miss" game. Do not miss this one! You can catch it tonight at 6:30pm CT / 7:30pm ET on ESPN.
October 24th, 2007
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Today the NFL announced some changes to the draft. Here are my thoughts on them:
* 10 Minutes Between 1st Round Picks Instead of 15 - Each year the draft has been getting increasingly longer, especially the first round, so that is almost certainly the reason behind this change. Personally, after a year of preparing for the weekend I am fine with it being as long as possible. In fact, I wish they would go back to 10+ rounds like the old days! I'm not raving mad over this adjustment but I'd have preferred to see it stay the same and I hope it doesn't take away or hinder the potential for trades during the draft. The verdict is still out on this one...
* Rounds 1 and 2 Will Be on Saturday, Rounds 3-7 Will Be on Sunday - All this does is move round three from Saturday to Sunday but once again I am not a big fan of the move because it's just going to make Day Two that much longer and I liked having it distributed a little more evenly. Also, it was always fun to watch and see which players have slipped through the cracks and while we will still have that it just doesn't seem like it will be quite as dramatic when you're talking about going at the top of the third round as it was the fourth for some reason. On the plus side I think that whoever holds the first pick in the third round is going to get a lot of trade action because teams will have had all night to evaluate who is still available and there will be a much higher quality of prospect still on the board in round three than there was round four. One other note here is that we will have to adjust our definitions of "Day One" and "Day Two", with round three now falling in the latter category. That is going to take some getting used to.
* Start Time Pushed Back 3 Hours - The draft will now begin at 2pm central on Saturday as opposed to 11am, which will allow those West Coasters to sleep in a little longer. Despite the later start the draft should still end about the same time as usual since there won't be as long in between first round picks. Maybe these few extra hours will allow teams to make some more pre-draft deals too. Hopefully either ESPN or the NFL Network will use this opportunity to put together a nice preview show leading up to the start of the draft as well. I think I like this one.
Overall I guess I am mostly indifferent to the changes and could basically take or leave them. However, I am happy that they didn't move the first round to prime time on Friday night, as had been discussed, because that would have been a little too radical for me. While most of these adjustments won't have too much of an effect on the actual draft it will be interesting to see if the shorter time between first round picks will make it harder for teams to consummate trades but other than that I don't see this being too big of a deal for either the teams or us draftniks.
October 23rd, 2007
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I often get e-mails asking me how I would fix certain teams and since I'm based out of Minnesota I thought I would lay out what I would do if put in charge of the Vikings.
1. Fire Brad Childress - At the time of his hiring Childress was a hot candidate and a good choice but he has done a terrible job since taking over a 9-7 team and keeping him around any longer just compounds the mistake. Not only has there been a major decline in the teams record since Childress came on board but the team isn't even fun to watch when they are winning and his boring, unimaginative offense is driving fans away. Perhaps his most egregious error has been putting too much stock in quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, who he went out on a major limb for and has been proven very wrong. Owner Zygi Wilf is trying to get a new stadium and right now he's lightyears further away from getting one than he was B.C., Before Childress.
2. Give Up on Tarvaris Jackson - Ever since they traded up to draft him way higher than they should have in the 2nd round I've been saying that Jackson isn't an NFL starting quarterback and even if he could potentially be one some day it would take years of development. Instead of bringing him along slowly, which was the only way there would even be a chance of him panning out, the team forced him into action as a rookie and even though he played poorly in that limited action they went into the 2007 season putting all of their eggs in his basket. Huge mistake. Basically a season-killing mistake. And the sad thing is everyone else saw this coming and outside of the organization nobody thought he was ready for handle the job. It's time to admit Childress' mistake and move on, even though it may mean basically writing off the last two years and starting over at the position. It's time to take the medicine, bitter as it may be.
3. Sign a Veteran Quarterback - We saw what Jeff Garcia has done for the Buccaneers this year and there is no reason why a steady, veteran presence can't do the exact same thing in Minnesota. Obviously Donovan McNabb would be the dream scenario but since that is a long-shot I will set my sights a little lower and aim for Chad Pennington. It seems like a foregone conclusion that the Jets will be going with Kellen Clemens so Pennington will be available and even though he isn't a superstar he would be more than adequate for the Vikings purposes. Pennington is extremely smart and a good leader and even though his arm is extremely weak that won't matter much if Childress is around because he doesn't have any plays that call for throws longer than 5-10 yards anyway. Just kidding, I think... This solves the quarterback problem for the time being and allows the team to contend right away rather than start over with an unproven, high-priced rookie such as Brian Brohm, André Woodson or Matt Ryan.
4. Draft Day - Since I already have my veteran signal caller I don't need to take one in round one which allows me to shore up the offensive line and fix another Childress mistake at right tackle. Had Childress been in Mobile, AL at the Senior Bowl a couple of years ago like I was he would have seen that Ryan Cook was not going to be able to play offensive tackle in the pros but he apparently had better things to do. With my first pick, depending on how high it is, Jake Long would be unbelievable but if he is gone I go with Gosder Cherilus. Granted that isn't the type of sexy pick that the fan base will get all excited about but it addresses a huge need and will make the entire offense better. In round two I opt for my quarterback of the future and select either Chad Henne or Colt Brennan, who will be 3rd string as a rookie and be given at least 2-3 years to develop behind Pennington. With my last pick on Day One I opt for some offensive firepower and grab wide receiver Harry Douglas, who will be a nice compliment to Sidney Rice and Bobby Wade while providing the team with a team threat who, unlike Troy Williamson, can actually catch the ball. On Day Two I will look for best players available for the most part with an eye toward upgrading the depth along the offensive line if at all possible.
So there you have it, I have fixed the Minnesota Vikings in just four easy steps! The sad thing is the Vikings aren't that bad of a team and they have a lot of pieces in place to contend (fantastic running game, a real good defense, a great left side of the offensive line) but unfortunately Childress made a terrible calculation at a critical position (i.e. quarterback) and that has essentially killed their '07 season and maybe even set the franchise backs years. I don't expect things to get much better for Minnesota down the stretch so there may be some sweeping changes in the organization soon, if not this year then next for sure, and if that is the case I just want to let Mr. Wilf know that I am available to come in and get things on track.
October 22nd, 2007
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We may have a winner in the race for the #1 pick in the 2008 NFL Draft.
The Miami Dolphins.
Already winless and one of the worst teams in the league, the Dolphins have now lost their best, and some might say only, offensive weapon with Ronnie Brown going down for the year with a knee injury. This comes less than a week after Miami waved the proverbial white flag by trading Chris Chambers to San Diego for a 2nd round pick. Cleo Lemon / Jesse Chatman / Derek Hagan sounds like the perfect recipe for landing the top pick in the draft if you ask me! It now seems like a foregone conclusion that the Dolphins will finish with one of the worst records and a very high pick. In fact, the only remaining question is whether they will wind up going 0-16.
So if they do indeed "earn" the #1 overall pick what direction might they go? Assuming Ronnie Brown can come all the way back from his injury, and there's no reason to think he won't, they already have one of the best young running backs in the league so that most likely rules out Darren McFadden. In my opinion quarterback should be a consideration for them but since they just drafted John Beck early in the 2nd round and seem to like him I highly doubt they will go that route. That probably leaves either Michigan's Jake Long, who would solve a long-standing problem along the offensive line, or L.S.U. DT Glenn Dorsey, who would be a good start when it comes to rebuilding that once proud defense. The reality is that just one player isn't going to fix what's wrong with Miami because they have a lot of holes to fill but the most troubling aspect from my point of view is that they likely aren't going to end up taking a "difference maker" with their first pick. Granted both Long and Dorsey are excellent players who will be major upgrades for them but they aren't the types who are going to single-handedly turn a team around and if I am picking that early in the draft I'd want to take a chance on someone who could provide a spark for my franchise, both on as well as off the field. We will see how the rest of the season plays out but for the time being the Phins have to be considered heavy favorites to finish with that top overall pick in the '08 Draft, and it just might be the last time they are favored all year.
October 19th, 2007
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In a recent edition of Ask NFLDC I was asked to re-do the Top 10 of the 2007 NFL Draft with what teams would do today, knowing what they know now. For the most part there really were not too many changes but the biggest was at #2, where I had Detroit taking Adrian Peterson.
Now there is nothing wrong with Calvin Johnson because the team likes him and he's going to be a great player but the bottom line is that the Lions have plenty of wide receivers and they have no problems in the passing game whereas the situation at running back is very much up in the air. Maybe Kevin Jones will make it all the way back and be as effective as he was prior to the injury but at this point that is a major question mark and it's pretty obvious that neither Tatum Bell or T.J. Duckett are the long-term answer. Even with Calvin Johnson nursing an injury and not making much of an impact the Lions offense has been terrific so you can just imagine how explosive they would be with a stud running back like Adrian Peterson in the mix. Based on early returns it looks like the man they call "AD" is going to be one of the best running backs in the entire league (if he isn't already) so based on talent he'd certainly be worthy of that #2 overall pick and he'd also be a much better fit for Detroit when it comes to need as well so if given the chance to do it all over, knowing what we know now, I really think the Lions might take Peterson over Johnson. This is all hypothetical though and since Detroit would never admit it even if they did feel that way I guess it's a moot point. However, if the Lions take a running back early in the 2008 NFL Draft I think we will be able to safely assume that it would at least have been a close race. Six months after the fact and we are still speculating about what did and should have happened. This is exactly why the NFL Draft is so popular and so much fun!
October 18th, 2007
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Miami junior Calais Campbell gets a lot of attention, and deservedly so, but don't be surprised if Virginia's Chris Long is ultimately the first defensive end selected in the 2008 NFL Draft.
Coming into the '07 season everyone had Long pegged as a sure-fire 1st round pick but the big knock on him was his rather pedestrian sack totals, with a career grand total of just 7.0 coming into his senior year. However, through 7 games this year Long has already notched 8.0 sacks to go along with 9.5 TFL and has shown that he is more than just a run stopper. Early in his college career Long was used mostly as a five-technique in the Cavs 3-4 defense where his primary responsibility was to take on and engage blockers but as a senior he has been freed up rush the passer a little more and the results have been extremely positive. At 6-4 and 280 lbs. Long certainly has the size to thrive as a 3-4 end at the next level and that will probably be his best fit but his production as a senior has opened scouts eyes to the possibility of him playing in a 4-3 as well and that will only enhance his draft stock. A better prospect than Adam Carriker, who went 13th overall, was a year ago, Long has often drawn comparisons to 2000 #4 overall pick Justin Smith and those are pretty accurate. It's still early in the process but it seems pretty clear that Long has not only established himself as the top senior at his position but also a Top 5-10 pick. Suffice it to say he won't just be known as Howie's kid much longer. Be sure to check out my August interview with Chris by clicking below:
* Oregon St. WR Sammie Stroughter will miss the rest of the season with a kidney injury. The Beavers will now seek a medical redshirt for Stroughter and it looks like he will be back in Corvallis next year. He is / was a potential Day One pick as both a wideout and punt returner.
* The Arizona Cardinals have released Quentin Moses, who was the first pick of the 3rd round in April. This is already the second time that he has been cut since being drafted in April. Moses is the case for why it's not always a good idea to go back to school for your senior year.
* Oregon WR Cameron Colvin will miss the rest of his senior season with a broken ankle. Colvin was an elite recruit coming out of high school who had been considered a bust but he finally began to play up to his potential in '07 and I feel like he may be worth a late round flyer.
* Some other prospects who are done for the year due to injuries include Wisconsin WR Luke Swan (hamstring), Maryland OG Andrew Crummey (broken leg), and Georgia RB Kregg Lumpkin (knee). Virginia Tech ILB Vince Hall's season is also in jeopardy due to a broken wrist.
October 16th, 2007
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The more I see of Brian Brohm, André Woodson and Matt Ryan the more I come to the same conclusion: None of them are truly "elite" pro prospects.
It's obviously still pretty early in the evaluation process and that could very easily change over the next 6 months or so but at this point all of those guys have enough question marks for me to comfortably say that if the draft was tomorrow none of them would earn my top grade. I am very stingy with that label and only hand it out to 3-5 prospects every year so that probably needs to be noted for perspective but nevertheless I just don't see any of them as franchise types yet. That doesn't mean that all three of those guy aren't going to come off the board very early because they are, probably in the Top 10-15 overall, but I sure don't see a Brady Quinn, JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young or Matt Leinart in this group. Even though many are dropping him I still have Brohm as my #1 guy but it's basically a toss-up for me between Woodson and Ryan for the #2 spot and I'm honestly not so sure that I wouldn't rather nab a Chad Henne or Colt Brennan in the 2nd round rather than invest big money and a high pick on either of those two. As I said there is still a long way to go in this process and maybe one of these guys will really emerge down the stretch like Russell did last year or have a big Senior Bowl like Philip Rivers or Jay Cutler did but as of right now there isn't a legit Top 3-5 signal caller in this draft. Even though this is one of the deeper crops of quarterbacks I've seen in a while with as many as 8 or 9 guys on track to potentially earn Day one grades, it's still lacking in true star power.
October 15th, 2007
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When Cal lost to Oregon State this past weekend one of the big storylines was the lackluster performance by Bears star wideout DeSean Jackson, who failed to make much of an impact as a receiver (4 catches for 5 yards), runner (1 carry for 8 yards) or a punt returner (12 yards on one attempt). Granted the Beavers focused their coverage on Jackson which opened things up for his teammate Lavelle Hawkins to have a huge game to the tune of 9 receptions for 192 yards and 2 touchdowns but this isn't the first time that Jackson has seemingly disappeared from a game this year and it has started to raise some questions about him as a pro prospect.
I think the first thing that everyone really needs to keep in mind is that despite his dynamic playmaking ability and explosiveness Jackson probably isn't ever going to be a true #1 wide receiver in the NFL. Even though he has adequate height (6-0) Jackson lacks the ideal bulk that you look for at just 172 lbs. and will probably settle in as a #2 or maybe even a #3 option in the pros. And there's nothing wrong with that. The problem is that Jackson will more than likely be the first wideout chosen if he comes out early and with that will come big, and probably unrealistic expectations. Many have noted the obvious similarities between Jackson and Ted Ginn, Jr. and that is an apt comparison, although I think Jackson is a better prospect as both a receiver and a return man, but just as I cautioned with Ginn when he was going through the draft process it is important to keep things in perspective. I have said all along that Ginn was a reach at #9 overall last year and Jackson will likely go a bit higher than he should in '08 simply because it isn't a great class of wide receivers. So remember, just because somebody takes Jackson in the Top 10-15 overall that doesn't mean he is going to be a superstar so if it's your team that selects DeSean try to think of him more along the lines of Lee Evans, Santana Moss, Joey Galloway or Eddie Kennison rather than Chad Johnson, Randy Moss, T.O. or Torry Holt.
October 12th, 2007
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In the past I've noted the lack of safeties in the senior class and while that hasn't changed a player is rising up draft boards and may soon contend for one of the top spots in the rankings.
That player is Craig Steltz of L.S.U., who's having a terrific senior season and is actually leading a very talented Bayou Bengal defense in tackles. A common misperception is that Steltz doesn't have great physical tools and while nobody is going to confuse him with LaRon Landry his triangle numbers (6-2/209/4.60) are more than adequate and he's actually a pretty good athlete. A hard worker who is extremely strong and super tough, Steltz has already made a number of impact plays this year and has been much better in coverage than anyone expected. Basically he might be the prospect that everyone thought Tom Zbikowski was. Now Steltz isn't going to be a first round pick or anything like that but don't be surprised if he ends up being one of first senior safeties chosen. If not the first.
October 11th, 2007
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Reason number 1,867,501 why I don't like the NCAA:
The Reggie Bush situation.
Charles Robinson and Jason Cole have done an excellent job of covering the case for Yahoo! Sports so you can read up on some of the background there but what it essentially boils down to is Reggie Bush and his family allegedly took about $280,000 in "extra benefits" while he was still at USC, which would be a clear violation of NCAA rules. It looks like there is a pretty strong case against Bush with a lot of evidence and even a paper trail but to his point the NCAA has yet to act, although that could change now that one of the two principle figures in the case (the other was essentially paid off by Bush to the tune of $200,000+ to keep quiet) has agreed to meet with them and provide even more proof that rules were in fact broken. However, even if the NCAA comes to the conclusion that all of these allegations are indeed true the Trojans may still escape with just a slap on the wrist unless the NCAA can prove that they knew about the situation as it was going on. Bush on the other hand could lose his Heisman Trophy if he was actually technically ineligible throughout the 2005 and maybe even part of the 2004 season.
Now I am absolutely of the opinion that these big time college athletes should be paid because they generate billions of dollars for their schools but at the same time if the NCAA is going to have these rules they need to enforce them. If all of these accusations against Bush and his family are true then this is about as blatant of a breach of NCAA rules that I have seen and they need to take extreme measures and make an example of both Bush and the Trojans. Outside of taking his Heisman away the NCAA can't do a whole lot to Bush but even if they didn't know this was going on I think the Southern Cal program needs to be dealt with harshly, otherwise they will basically be rewarded for burying their head in the sand. Maybe there really wasn't anything they could have done to prevent this but if the NCAA comes down hard on a premier program like USC by making them forfeit wins, repay bowl profits and taking away scholarships you can bet everyone else will be much more diligent in policing their players and doing their absolute best to make sure the same thing doesn't happen to them. Something tells me that little or nothing will ultimately come of this since the NCAA is so hypocritical and clearly lacks a backbone but perhaps they will surprise me and finally do the right thing for once.
I'm not holding my breath.
October 10th, 2007
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Limas Sweed's college football career is over.
After battling a wrist injury all season long Sweed decided he could no longer play through the pain and opted to go under the knife and have the ligament damage repaired. Just how this will ultimately affect his draft stock remains to be seen but Sweed hopes to be healthy enough to work out for teams before Draft Day. At this point I would say whether or not he will play in the Senior Bowl is very much up in the air. Coming into the season the 6-5, 219 lb. Sweed had received a very high grade from NFL scouts due in large part to his size and a almost uncanny knack for making big plays in the clutch.
There really isn't a clear-cut #1 senior wideout right now so Sweed was and probably still is right in the mix to be the first chosen. On a positive note this will give him a little extra time to train and try to get that forty time down, which is about the only thing that might keep him out of the first round next April.
October 9th, 2007
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Panthers quarterbacks Jake Delhomme is going to have season-ending elbow surgery and that news creates a potentially interesting Draft Day situation for Carolina. Delhomme played well in 2007 before getting hurt but coming into the season he was on very shaky ground and essentially fighting to keep his job. This will provide an extended opportunity for David Carr to prove he can at least be a capable backup in the NFL but so far the results have been less than impressive. So if Carr continues to struggle do the Panthers look for a quarterback in the 2008 NFL Draft and is so how early? From my point of view the answers are "Yes" and "Pretty Early".
I think Delhomme's hot start bought him some more time so I don't think they will look for a signal caller in round one, however it would not surprise me to see them invest a Day One pick in the position. Unless Carr really shows them something in his audition down the stretch the Panthers will at the very least need to groom a capable backup and since Delhomme is far from a sure thing as the starter it sure wouldn't hurt to have a good insurance policy. So who might they look at? I think names like Chad Henne, Erik Ainge and John David Booty would make a lot of sense in round two or three or if they want to wait until Day Two a guy like Sam Keller could be an intriguing option. Keep an eye on Joe Flacco of Delaware as a developmental sleeper too.
Personally, I think they have to draft a quarterback relatively early on because Delhomme may not be the answer even when he's healthy and going into another season without some plan for the future would just be irresponsible. Poor planning at the quarterback position has ruined many a season and unless David Carr suddenly turns into a good player the Panthers might be the latest victim. The key will be to not repeat that same mistake next year.
October 8th, 2007
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If you haven't already read The Blind Side by Michael Lewis pick it up, you won't regret it.
I am not a big reader by any stretch of the imagination but for me this was the definition of a book that I simply couldn't put down. In fact, I read all 299 pages in less than 24 hours in just two sittings.
For those who don't know this book chronicles the life of Ole Miss offensive tackle Michael Oher as he overcomes about as rough of an upbringing as you can possibly imagine to become one of the most highly coveted recruits in the nation and a top pro prospect. Lewis, who might be best known for writing the baseball book Moneyball, does a fantastic job of not only telling Oher's story but also delving into how the left tackle position has evolved into one of the most valuable commodities in the NFL today. I actually had this book sitting on a shelf for about ten months and my only regret is I didn't get around to reading it sooner. Needless to say I highly recommend it!
From an NFL Draft perspective, Oher is my top rated junior offensive tackle and a probable first round pick should he come out early for the 2008 NFL Draft. However, if he goes back for his senior year he could be the next Joe Thomas or Jake Long and a Top 3-5 overall pick in '09.
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With Travis Henry of the Broncos now facing a one-year suspension after failing yet another drug test the door has been opened for another below the radar running back to emerge in Denver. After going undrafted Selvin Young has been impressive in limited action as a rookie, carrying the ball 15 times for 138 yards with a sparkling 9.2 average, and if Henry is out of the picture it appears he will get the first crack at replacing him. Who knows whether or not Young would be able to follow in the footsteps of Terrell Davis, Olandis Gary, or Mike Anderson but based on that franchise's track record with running backs I sure wouldn't bet against him. Keep in mind that we went through this a year ago with Mike Bell, who could be back in the mix now as well, and even though he was solid as a rookie he certainly didn't live up to those enormous expectations so even if Young does get the nod that doesn't necessarily guarantee success.
Here is a look back at my final pre-draft scouting report on Selvin Young:
Strengths:
Size, speed and bulk are adequate...Extremely versatile...Has good hands and is a weapon out of the backfield...An above average blocker...Instinctive with good vision...Has a nice burst...Can contribute as a returner on special teams.
Weaknesses:
Durability's a big concern...Not a strong / physical runner...Lacks wiggle and just isn't very elusive...Intangibles and work ethic are question marks...Many have wondered about his toughness..Doesn't consistently play up to his talent level.
Notes:
Never carried the load in college, serving as the backup to Cedric Benson and Jamaal Charles...Jack-of-all-trades but master of none...Has talent but profiles as a backup...Could carve a niche for himself as a situational RB / kick returner.
October 4th, 2007
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Bad news for Darren McFadden.
Well, not really because barring an unexpected development he's still going to be a millionaire many times over a year from now. However, his chances of being the #1 overall pick should he bolt after his junior season are not looking particularity good. At least at this point that is.
Beyond the monetary reasons I outlined in my September 28 blog entry the biggest thing "D-Mac" has working against him right now in his bid to be #1 is the needs of the worst teams in the NFL. Obviously a lot can and will change between now and the end of the season but as it stands the three winless teams are Miami, St. Louis and New Orleans. What do they all have in common, other than those dreadful records? They are all very much set at the running back position. In fact, even if you look at the teams with just one win there really isn't anyone who has a dire need at the running back. As I said it's still early and this can change in a quick hurry but assuming they finished with the worst record who would each of those winless teams take with the top pick in the 2008 NFL Draft? Let's take a really quick and extremely premature look:
Miami Dolphins - Jake Long. The offensive line has been a problem area for years now.
St. Louis Rams - Tossup. Either Glenn Dorsey (Glover's old) or Jake Long (Pace's health).
New Orleans Saints - Glenn Dorsey. They really need a corner but take the best defender.
October 3rd, 2007
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Many have Early Doucet of L.S.U. rated as the top senior wide receiver for the 2008 NFL Draft and while he might ultimately claim that ranking when all is said and done that still doesn't guarantee that he will be a 1st round pick next April, let alone an early first rounder.
After waiting his turn behind Dwayne Bowe and Buster Davis, who were both first rounders in 2007, it is now Doucet's time to shine but thus far he has been slowed by an injury and only played in 2 of the Tigers 5 games. That isn't the real issue though. The problem with Doucet as a prospect is that he's not as big as Bowe (6-0) and he's not as fast as Davis so unless he runs better than those estimated 4.5's it might be hard for him to sneak into the first frame. This wasn't mean to slam Early because there is certainly plenty to like about him and he should be a fine pro but keep in mind that just because a guy is rated as the top player at his position that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to come off the board in those initial 32 selections.
October 2nd, 2007
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I know I always say it's never too early to look ahead but I may have been proven wrong.
SI.com just recently did a feature on an 11-year-old 5th grader out of Delaware by the name of David Sills who is already being called "one of the greatest quarterback prospects ever".
Seriously.
His quarterback coach (yes, his quarterback coach) Steve Clarkson, who has worked with the likes of Matt Leinart, Ben Roethlisberger, J.P. Losman and Jimmy Clausen, is quoted heavily in the article and sings the praises of the young signal caller saying he's "on his way to being the greatest high school recruited quarterback ever,". You can read the whole story for yourself but apparently we are going to have to remember the name David Sills for the 2019 NFL Draft.
Crazy.
October 1st, 2007
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It was a bloody, bloody weekend in college football. Just look at some of these results:
* #3 Oklahoma got beat by unranked Colorado
* #4 Florida got beat by unranked Auburn
* #5 West Virginia got beat by #18 South Florida
* #7 Texas got beat by unranked Kansas St.
* #10 Rutgers got beat by unranked Maryland
* #11 Oregon got beat by #6 California
* #13 Clemson got beat by unranked Georgia Tech
* #21 Penn St. got beat by unranked Illinois
* #22 Alabama got beat by unranked Florida St.
HAVE MERCY! Needless to say this made a mess of the polls and allowed teams like Ohio St. and Wisconsin to jump into the Top 5, even though I still think Oklahoma and Florida (now #9 and #10 respectively) are better than both of them. It's still early in the season so there is plenty of time for teams to recover from a single loss but as always I am hoping for BCS anarchy. In my perfect world the only two unbeaten teams at the end of the year would be South Florida and Hawaii because it might take something like that to finally get the playoff system that almost everyone wants. That might not be such a stretch either because #1 L.S.U. has to take on Florida this weekend while USC has looked far from impressive and still has to take on teams like Cal, Oregon and UCLA. It's clear that there isn't a dominant team in college football this year and I think that there's a good chance the best team won't even get a shot to play for the National Championship, let alone win it, which would be a shame. These are the types of crazy weekends that could get us one step closer to a "true" champion though so in addition to my usual "Down with the BCS" chant all I have to say is "Go Bulls and Warriors".
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North Dakota, a traditional DII power, has a redshirt sophomore running back by the name of 
The 6-2, 223 lb. Forté, who is very quietly leading the nation in rushing with an average of 180 yards per game, appears to be a classic 'tweener since he isn't quite fast enough (4.6+ forty) to be a true running back at the next level and isn't a good enough blocker to be a true fullback. However, even though he may not stand out in any one area Forté is an extremely versatile all-around offensive weapon who can do a little bit of everything (run/catch/block) which is why he has been drawing comparisons to Brian Leonard, albeit a very poor-man's version of the former Rutgers star. Forté isn't going to match Leonard, who was a 2nd round pick by the Rams, on Draft Day but he has definitely put himself in contention for a spot in the middle rounds and could play in the NFL for a long time as a backup, potentially following the career path of a guy like Robert Holcombe.
Now there is nothing wrong with Calvin Johnson because the team likes him and he's going to be a great player but the bottom line is that the Lions have plenty of wide receivers and they have no problems in the passing game whereas the situation at running back is very much up in the air. Maybe Kevin Jones will make it all the way back and be as effective as he was prior to the injury but at this point that is a major question mark and it's pretty obvious that neither Tatum Bell or T.J. Duckett are the long-term answer. Even with Calvin Johnson nursing an injury and not making much of an impact the Lions offense has been terrific so you can just imagine how explosive they would be with a stud running back like Adrian Peterson in the mix. Based on early returns it looks like the man they call "AD" is going to be one of the best running backs in the entire league (if he isn't already) so based on talent he'd certainly be worthy of that #2 overall pick and he'd also be a much better fit for Detroit when it comes to need as well so if given the chance to do it all over, knowing what we know now, I really think the Lions might take Peterson over Johnson. This is all hypothetical though and since Detroit would never admit it even if they did feel that way I guess it's a moot point. However, if the Lions take a running back early in the 2008 NFL Draft I think we will be able to safely assume that it would at least have been a close race. Six months after the fact and we are still speculating about what did and should have happened. This is exactly why the NFL Draft is so popular and so much fun!
Coming into the '07 season everyone had Long pegged as a sure-fire 1st round pick but the big knock on him was his rather pedestrian sack totals, with a career grand total of just 7.0 coming into his senior year. However, through 7 games this year Long has already notched 8.0 sacks to go along with 9.5 TFL and has shown that he is more than just a run stopper. Early in his college career Long was used mostly as a five-technique in the Cavs 3-4 defense where his primary responsibility was to take on and engage blockers but as a senior he has been freed up rush the passer a little more and the results have been extremely positive. At 6-4 and 280 lbs. Long certainly has the size to thrive as a 3-4 end at the next level and that will probably be his best fit but his production as a senior has opened scouts eyes to the possibility of him playing in a 4-3 as well and that will only enhance his draft stock. A better prospect than Adam Carriker, who went 13th overall, was a year ago, Long has often drawn comparisons to 2000 #4 overall pick Justin Smith and those are pretty accurate. It's still early in the process but it seems pretty clear that Long has not only established himself as the top senior at his position but also a Top 5-10 pick. Suffice it to say he won't just be known as Howie's kid much longer. Be sure to check out my August interview with Chris by clicking below:
That player is Craig Steltz of L.S.U., who's having a terrific senior season and is actually leading a very talented Bayou Bengal defense in tackles. A common misperception is that Steltz doesn't have great physical tools and while nobody is going to confuse him with LaRon Landry his triangle numbers (6-2/209/4.60) are more than adequate and he's actually a pretty good athlete. A hard worker who is extremely strong and super tough, Steltz has already made a number of impact plays this year and has been much better in coverage than anyone expected. Basically he might be the prospect that everyone thought Tom Zbikowski was. Now Steltz isn't going to be a first round pick or anything like that but don't be surprised if he ends up being one of first senior safeties chosen. If not the first.
After battling a wrist injury all season long Sweed decided he could no longer play through the pain and opted to go under the knife and have the ligament damage repaired. Just how this will ultimately affect his draft stock remains to be seen but Sweed hopes to be healthy enough to work out for teams before Draft Day. At this point I would say whether or not he will play in the Senior Bowl is very much up in the air. Coming into the season the 6-5, 219 lb. Sweed had received a very high grade from NFL scouts due in large part to his size and a almost uncanny knack for making big plays in the clutch.
I am not a big reader by any stretch of the imagination but for me this was the definition of a book that I simply couldn't put down. In fact, I read all 299 pages in less than 24 hours in just two sittings.
After waiting his turn behind Dwayne Bowe and Buster Davis, who were both first rounders in 2007, it is now Doucet's time to shine but thus far he has been slowed by an injury and only played in 2 of the Tigers 5 games. That isn't the real issue though. The problem with Doucet as a prospect is that he's not as big as Bowe (6-0) and he's not as fast as Davis so unless he runs better than those estimated 4.5's it might be hard for him to sneak into the first frame. This wasn't mean to slam Early because there is certainly plenty to like about him and he should be a fine pro but keep in mind that just because a guy is rated as the top player at his position that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to come off the board in those initial 32 selections.
* #3 Oklahoma got beat by unranked Colorado