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I just made the new mock draft live so be sure to check it out!
As you'll see Arkansas RB Darren McFadden is not the #1 overall pick and even though I think he'll probably be rated as the best player available by just about every team there is a real good chance that he will slip a bit. The first thing that would have to happen is for the team who gets the top pick to be in need of a running back and at this point the five winless teams (Atlanta, Buffalo, Miami, St. Louis and New Orleans) are all set at the position. However, even if the team picking first could use McFadden I am not sure they would take him, at least not at #1, for one simple reason: Money. As good of a prospect as McFadden is will some team be willing to fork over $30 million in guaranteed money to a running back when even the best of the best like LaDainian Tomlinson and Larry Johnson only got $21 and $19 million respectively? Investing that type of money on a running back is a huge gamble (Ki-Jana Carter or Curtis Enis anyone?) and even if McFadden were to become the best running back in the NFL he still might not be worth devoting that big of a portion of the salary cap to. It's something to think about.
In the end McFadden might be considered such a rare prospect that teams will be willing to throw caution to the wind but if I were a betting man I'd say that McFadden won't be the #1 overall pick, for one reason or another. It would be a shame if money started dictating NFL Draft selections like it does in Major League Baseball and I sincerely hope that a rookie salary scale like the NBA utilizes is put in place before that day comes.
September 27th, 2007
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One of the most perplexing stories out there right now when it comes to the NFL Draft is that of T.C.U. defensive end Tommy Blake, who for the second time since August has taken a leave of absense from the team for reasons that have only been described as of "a personal nature". In fact, there is even talk that Blake could apply for a medical hardship waiver or redshirt and return to college for a rare 6th year of eligibility next season.
I don't want to say too much about the situation because I obviously don't have all of the details yet but this certainly doesn't bode well for his draft stock. Regardless of whether he's a part of the Class of '08 or '09 Blake will now have to go through an even more rigorous vetting process than usual with scouts and decision-makers wanting to know exactly why a potential high draft pick and All-American candidate left his team, especially in the middle of a season. One of the premier pass rushers in the country, Blake is undersized and may have to move to outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme at the next level but that didn't stop scouts from giving him a 1st round grade prior to these issues surfacing and had he come out as a junior the Underclassmen Advisory Panel told him that he would likely have been a 2nd round pick in '07.
It will be interesting to see how this whole thing plays out. Stay tuned.
September 26th, 2007
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I'm working on the new mock draft and it's becoming pretty apparent that the supply more than likely isn't going to meet the demand when it comes to top safety prospects this year.
If he comes out Miami's Kenny Phillips will certainly be the first safety chosen and probably a Top 5-10 overall pick but with teams like Houston, Jacksonville, Carolina, and Dallas just to name a few in need of serious help at the position there is certainly room for more than one in the first round. The problem is at this point there isn't another senior or junior with a first round grade. Oklahoma junior Reggie Smith is playing cornerback this year but he has experience at safety and would likely be the next best option should he come out but overall the pickings are pretty slim. There will be some value in rounds two and three with guys like Josh Barrett of Arizona St., Jonathan Hefney of Tennessee and Thomas DeCoud of California but if you're a team in need of a starting safety you had better not put all of your eggs in the draft basket.
September 25th, 2007
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Some bad news came down the pipe today when it was announced that South Carolina LB Jasper Brinkley would miss the rest of the season with a knee injury. You may remember that last year Clemson's Anthony Waters, who at the time was considered to be one of the top inside 'backers in the nation, went down with a knee injury early in the year as well but this situation is a little different because Brinkley has a redshirt year available to him and according to Gamecocks head coach Steve Spurrier he plans to take advantage of it.
Most (including me) seemed to have Brinkley rated as the top senior inside linebacker available for the 2008 NFL Draft thanks to his ideal size and physical game so this is certainly a blow because it takes a pretty darn good prospect out of the player pool. If not for the injury Brinkley definitely would have been a Day One pick and in my opinion he could have been a fringe 1st rounder. So how will this affect his draft stock? That is obviously still to be determined and a lot will depend on how he recovers and plays next year but just taking a quick superficial look at the situation as it stands right now it will probably cost him some money. Even if he makes it all the way back Brinkley will likely have a lot more competition for that top spot at his position in 2009 than he would have in 2008 and assuming they don't come out early he will almost assuredly be stuck behind James Laurinaitis of Ohio St., Rey Maualuga of USC and Darry Beckwith of L.S.U. in the rankings. With that said I still think going back to school is the right decision for him because at this point barring a miraculous recovery he's damaged goods and probably just a late rounder in '08 whereas next year he could still get back in the first day mix.
Best of luck to Jasper in his rehab.
September 24th, 2007
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Recently I was sent a copy of the 2007 Football Prospectus and in all honesty this isn't the type of book that I'd usually go out and buy because I'm not really a "stat guy". With that said I was pleasantly surprised at just how entertaining I found this book and I don't think you necessarily need to grasp all of the different stats and concepts they use to enjoy it too.
Rather than murder all the explanations I am just going to list some of the features you'll find in this massive, 500+ page book:
* Groundbreaking team and player DVOA ratings that correct for situation and opponent to reveal which offenses and defenses are truly superior, and which players really help win games.
* Exclusive data from the Football Outsiders game charting project, unavailable in standard NFL stats, tells you which receivers run the longest patterns on both complete and incomplete passes; which quarterbacks benefit the most from yards after catch; which teams most often blitz or run specific offensive formations; and which defensive backs stop the other team's passing game, measured by pass coverage on every single play rather than just tackles.
* Extensive coverage of all 32 teams with week-by-week stats from the 2006 season, five-year performance trends, analysis of off-season personnel changes., historical trends, age, and more.
* Exclusive 2007 predictions that give the odds on each team as a Super Bowl contender ... or a contender for the top pick in the 2008 NFL Draft.
* 2007 fantasy football projections for more than 500 skill position players.
* The first-ever Pro Football Prospectus Top 25 Prospects list, focusing on the most talented young lower-round draft picks who are not yet NFL starters.
* KUBIAK projections grade each player for fantasy football risk in one of four categories
* Quarterback hits and hurries for every defensive lineman and linebacker.
* "Hidden" special teams numbers that reveal which teams succeed or fail based on opposing kickers over whom they have no control.
* Expanded comments on strategic tendencies analyze the best and worst teams on draws or screens, on play-action passes, or when lined up in various formations. Learn which offense had the slowest pace of the past decade, which veteran fullback saw his blocking abilities disintegrate, which defense was responsible for 25 percent of the NFL's intentional grounding penalties, and the shocking identity of the NFL quarterback who plays best when hurried by the pass rush.
* A look at the greatest running back seasons in NFL history.
* Whether or not "Bend but don't Break" defenses, fantasy football's "rookie wall," and "trap games" truly exist.
* The shotgun formation vs. standard formations.
* The disappearing two-point conversion.
* Accounting for matchups in building your weekly fantasy football lineup.
* The importance of offensive line continuity.
* Why Norv Turner is one of the worst head coaches in NFL history.
* David Lewin's college quarterback projection system.
* Numerous interesting essays about issues both on as well as off the field.
Needless to say you get a lot of bang for your buck with this book and you will find yourself constantly picking it up and thumbing through it. Personally I really enjoyed the various articles included throughout and it was really fun to look through the stats they had on each team's tendencies because you just don't find those in the box scores. I can't in good faith say this is a book that everyone will absolutely love but I promise it will give you a new perspective on a lot of teams and players and make you look at certain things much differently than you did before.
All in all it's an interesting read, especially for the hard-core football fan or fantasy owner.
So check out their site over at Football Outsiders.com and if you are interested in picking up a copy of the book you can do that online now at either Amazon or Barnes & Noble.
September 21st, 2007
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First of all there was a major rankings update today so be sure to check that out.
As I was going through and working on my rankings for the last week or so I came to the realization that this crop of seniors just isn't very good. That's not to say there isn't talent because there is but at this point there isn't one player who I am prepared to give my top grade of "Elite" to, not even guys like Jake Long, Glenn Dorsey or Brian Brohm. There is still a long way to go in the draft process and plenty of time for someone to make a move but we may have to wait for underclassmen like Darren McFadden to add some real star power to this draft.
Enjoy the rankings and look for a new mock draft next week!
September 20th, 2007
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One of the best crops of senior quarterbacks in years is getting even stronger thanks to the early season performances of two seniors who are skyrocketing up draft boards.
Coming into the season Matt Ryan of Boston College was a fringe first rounder who some scouts raved about while others, such as myself, were a little more skeptical of since he was coming off an injury-riddled junior campaign. Now healthy, Ryan has been a revelation so far this season while leading the Golden Eagles to an undefeated record and he is converting those who had previously doubted him. In terms of physical tools Ryan is more than adequate across the board but what really sets him apart are the intangibles and when it comes to leadership, toughness and smarts he takes a backseat to no one. In the minds of many Ryan is now the clear-cut #3 senior signal caller for the 2008 NFL Draft, trailing only Brian Brohm and André Woodson, and at this point he is solidly in the first round and still moving up.
While Oregon's Dennis Dixon isn't rated nearly as high as Ryan as a pro prospect his rise has been even more dramatic because he's gone from a late rounder / undrafted free agent to a mid-round, or dare I say potential Day One, pick in just a matter of weeks. Prior to the 2007 season Dixon was regarded as more of an athlete than he was a quarterback and he even spent the summer prior to his senior year playing minor league baseball in the Atlanta Braves farm system after they made him a 5th round pick but he has made such remarkable strides as a passer that it looks like his professional career may come on the gridiron and not the diamond after all. There is still a long way to go but no prospect has improved his draft stock in the early going as much as Dixon has and assuming the first three games of the season and his 7 / 0 touchdown-to-interception ratio were not an aberration he will continue to move up and his story will be an interesting one to watch develop.
It seems like there is always a shortage of quarterbacks in the NFL but help is on the way, with the Class of '08 now featuring six potential first rounders. Not only will there be quality at the top of the draft but there is excellent depth later on in the first day as well and with the emergence of Ryan and Dixon both tiers are now getting a major boost.
September 19th, 2007
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A sleeper who is beginning to generate a lot of ink lately is Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie of Tennessee State and in a relatively weak class of senior cornerbacks there could be a great opportunity for him to shoot up draft boards in the coming months.
Even though he could stand to add some bulk to his 6-2 and 170 lb. frame Rodgers-Cromartie appears to have the physical tools you look for in a pro prospect, most notably 4.45 speed and top-notch athleticism. While he certainly hasn't played against elite competition on a consistent basis at the Division I-AA level Rodgers-Cromartie has been pretty productive and stood out from the pack while making his mark on defense as well as special teams as a return man and kick blocker. For all his physical gifts Rodgers-Cromartie isn't overly aggressive and will definitely need some work from a technique standpoint but at the end of the day it's hard to ignore his upside. Some feel he could go as high as round one and while that is probably a stretch Day One is certainly not out of the question.
Remember the name Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.
September 18th, 2007
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Low and behold the Atlanta Falcons have signed Byron Leftwich, a move that was both obvious and logical since the moment you heard that the Jaguars had released him.
All in all I think this is a good move for both sides.
For Atlanta he should be an upgrade over Joey Harrington, who it's become impossible for even a long-time supporter like me to defend, and since they signed him to a 2-year deal he will be around in 2008 to help groom whatever young quarterback the Falcons opt to bring in, whether it be Brian Brohm or somebody else. From Leftwich's perspective this is about as good of a situation as he could have hoped for after being sent packing by Jacksonville when he was. Leftwich should now have ample opportunity to play and prove that he can be a starter in the NFL, whether it's in Atlanta or somewhere else down the line. That is what we call a win-win.
Signing Byron Leftwich won't be enough to right the Falcons ship or fix the mess that the Michael Vick situation has created but in my opinion it's a step in the right direction.
September 17th, 2007
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One of the biggest surprises of this young NFL season has been the New Orleans Saints getting off to a 0-2 start when most considered them to be a Super Bowl contender following their 10-6 season a year ago. There is certainly no denying that their offense has been pretty disappointing but their biggest problem once again is the defense, which has surrendered 72 points in the first two games, and based on the talent they have on hand things probably aren't going to get much better the rest of the way.
Outside of their two defensive ends (Charles Grant and Will Smith) and cornerback Mike McKenzie the Saints really don't have another above average starter on their defense yet they did very little to upgrade that side of the ball in the offseason. Sure they signed Jason David but bringing in a zone guy to play man coverage was a risky move and so far that experiment has been a big flop. Other than that their only additions were castoffs from other teams such as Kendrick Clancy, Brian Simmons and Kevin Kaesviharn, who are all best suited to be backups. After not doing much in free agency you would have thought the team would go heavy on defense in the NFL Draft but instead they used three of their first four choices on offense. Their first pick, Robert Meachem, has been a major disappointment thus far and is at or near the bottom of the wideout depth chart while Antonio Pittman, who they absolutely did not need to begin with, was beat out by an undrafted free agent and released. Needless to say the team passed on some players who could really have helped them this year in favor of two guys who will make little or no contribution. And with all of their problems in coverage the Saints also cut cornerback David Jones, their 5th round pick, who is a playmaker in the secondary and was immediately picked up by Cincinnati. After having one of the best drafts in recent memory last year the Saints effort in 2007 was extremely questionable at best and it could come back to haunt them time and time again throughout the season.
So why did this happen to New Orleans? In my opinion it's a classic case of a team thinking they are better than they actually are, which is a phenomenon I have pointed out and railed against time and time again over the years. In today's NFL there aren't many teams who don't have needs to address but despite come pretty obvious defensive deficiencies the Saints failed to adequately patch their holes and now they're paying for it. Drafting a third string running back early in the fouth round when you need help at all three levels of your defense is a luxury the Saints simply could not afford. I'm not saying that the Saints would be undefeated and dominating had they done things differently in the offseason but at least they would be able to look in the mirror say "we did all we could". Right now I don't think they can honestly say that.
September 13th, 2007
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Other matchups are getting more attention this weekend but from a draft perspective there is no bigger game than Louisville vs. Kentucky (7:30pm ET, ESPN Classic), which will pit Brian Brohm again André Woodson against each other in what could be a battle between the nation's top two senior quarterbacks. You don't see that too often!
Not only is this a chance to see two potential Top 10 picks up close and personal but it should also be a real fun game to watch because at this point the two teams are averaging 850 yards of offense a game. It would not be a shock to see 100 combined points put on the board so if you are a fan of offense then it just doesn't get much better than this. Everyone already knows all about Brian Brohm and what he brings to the table but for the most part André Woodson is still an unknown for casual fans so this has a chance to be his national coming out party.
I don't blame anyone for wanting to catch the USC / Nebraska game Saturday night but if you're a draftnik be sure to set a tape or your TiVo for Louisville / Kentucky.
September 12th, 2007
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What's that saying about if you're not cheating you're not trying?
If that's the case it appears the Patriots have been trying real hard because this past weekend they were caught videotaping the Jets defensive signals, which NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has apparently decided was a violation of league rules. This probably wasn't the first time New England has tried this either because last year Green Bay caught a Pats staffer carrying a video camera on their sideline as well. Rumor has it that Goodell could dock New England "multiple draft picks" for their transgressions, which could affect the 2008 NFL Draft.
It's no secret that the Pats have played fast and loose with the rules in recent years, most notably when it came to their injury reports, but this time it looks like they may have been caught with their hand in the cookie jar. Since he finally has hard proof will Goodell use this case to make an example out of the Patriots? Quite possibly, and I wouldn't blame him if he did.
UPDATE: Commissioner Roger Goodell has announced that the Patriots will give up next year's 1st round draft choice if it reaches the playoffs and 2nd and 3rd round picks if it does not
September 11th, 2007
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Jimmy Clausen is the real deal.
That may sound like a ridiculous statement considering he has only played in two games but from what I have seen I'm very comfortable putting that out there. Granted his numbers haven't been eye-popping (178 YDS, 55%, 0 TD / 1 INT) and a lot of those completions came on short swing passes to the flat per the Irish gameplan but you have to keep in mind that he's playing behind what has been a terrible offensive line and he doesn't have any proven playmakers at running back or wide receiver. So if not the statistics what has me so impressed with Clausen? Anyone who has followed this site over the years knows that I am a huge proponent of intangibles when it comes to evaluating quarterbacks because, after all, if all it took to be great was a big arm then Jeff George would be in the Hall of Fame. From what I have seen of him Clausen has exhibited maturity, confidence, decision making and leadership well beyond his years which leads me to believe that those who called him "The LeBron James of College Football" may not have been too far off. Most true freshmen would have had their heads spinning while making their first career start on the road in front of 107,000 hostile fans like Clausen did this past week against Penn St. but he looked as calm, cool and collected as a 3 or 4-year starter. The brother of former Tennessee Vols Casey and Luke Clausen, Jimmy has been groomed to be a big time quarterback and you can certainly see that polish in his game and mechanics. Physically he is more than adequate when it comes to size and arm strength but it's the little things that set Clausen apart from your average young signal caller and those are what will make him great. Give him a few years of tutelage under Charlie Weis and he just may be as refined and ready for the next level as any quarterback we have seen. This is essentially the Marv Marinovich experiment done right.
As with all young quarterbacks there are going to be growing pains and this is without question a rebuilding year for the Irish but there is some help on the way in the form of young talent so the future is bright in South Bend. It's going to be a while before we are talking about Clausen as a pro prospect (2010 or 2011) but the pieces are in place for him to develop into an elite player and to this point he's done nothing to make me think he won't live up to the hype.
September 10th, 2007
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It looks like the 2008 NFL Draft lost another prospect and this could be a major development.
Boston College DT B.J. Raji has been declared academically ineligible and will redshirt this season. There is still a chance that he could opt to head for the pros rather than return to college in 2008 but odds are he will play one more year at BC. Raji wasn't an elite prospect by any stretch of the imagination and he might not have gone any higher than the 3rd round but he was one of the few senior prospects with nose tackle potential and since the 3-4 defense is so prevalent these days 6-1, 340 pounders like him are in huge demand. With Raji apparently out of the picture guys like Frank Okam of Texas, Red Bryant of Texas A&M and Jason Shirley of Fresno St. could become even more valuable commodities on Draft Day next April.
September 7th, 2007
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If the Colts defense is even half as good as they looked in the '06 playoffs and the '07 season opener against the Saints the rest of the NFL is going to be in big trouble.
Personally, I'm still not convinced that this sudden 180-degree turnaround is for real but if they are somehow able to keep up this pace there is no reason why Indy shouldn't be Super Bowl favorites for at least the next 2-3 years. What they did in the playoffs last year was amazing when you consider that their defense was almost historically bad during the regular season but I am actually more impressed with their performance in the 41-10 shellacking of New Orleans considering the losses they suffered in the offseason. Lose a Pro Bowler in Cato June? No problem, just plug in Freddy Keiaho and watch him run all over the field and make impact plays. Lose both of your starting cornerbacks? Why panic? Just insert Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden into the lineup and they'll obviously shut down Drew Brees, one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Booger McFarland goes down for the season with an injury? Piece of cake! That undrafted rookie free agent Ed Johnson will step in and help hold arguably the best running back duo in the league in Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush to a measly 106 yards rushing. Your left tackle who has been a decade long stalwart for you unexpectedly retires? Puh-lease. Just throw rookie Tony Ugoh in there and he'll hold Will Smith, one of the best young defensive ends in the league, sackless. Shall I go on?
Simply amazing.
This is why the Colts are and have been one of the best run organizations in the game and you really can't say enough about the job they do. Having invested a large portion of their salary cap dollars in a few core players like Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Dwight Freeney they know that sacrifices must be made yet somehow they are able to plan ahead and not miss a beat when the time comes to replace guys who appear to be almost irreplaceable. As I said I'm not sure this defense will be able to keep up this pace but it's clear that they aren't going to be nearly as bad as many originally thought and that is a testament to the phenomenal work being done by Bill Polian, Tony Dungy and all of their cohorts.
September 6th, 2007
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I am sure everyone has seen the list of final cuts and while there are always surprises I am absolutely shocked at the number of high draft picks that teams have already given up on. We obviously expect to see a bunch of 7th rounders get jettisoned but to give up on Day One picks before Week 1 is almost unheard of and it happened not once but twice this year.
The two most notable draft picks to be cut were Quentin Moses and Buster Davis, who were both early 3rd round picks in April. The fall for Moses has been especially hard because just a year ago many had him pegged as a Top 5 overall pick and even though he did get picked up quickly by Arizona he's already on his second NFL team and fighting for a roster spot. Davis also found a new home on the Detroit Lions practice squad after turning down a similar offer from Arizona, which I think was a mistake because he certainly doesn't have the speed that a Cover 2 scheme looks for. Other fourth rounders who were cut include Antonio Pittman by New Orleans, A.J. Davis by Detroit, and Ryan McBean by Pittsburgh. Among the fifth rounders who were unable to make their original teams 53 man rosters were David Clowney by the Packers, Brandon Frye by the Texans, Josh Gattis by the Jaguars, David Jones by the Saints, C.J. Gaddis by the Eagles, Cameron Stephenson by the Steelers, Eric Frampton by the Raiders and Dustin Fry by the Rams. Granted some of those guys were later added to the practice squads of the teams that drafted them but investing a mid-round pick on someone who is unable to make your roster has to be considered a failure. Also note that Pittman and Gaddis are two early entries who could be playing in college right now and potentially moving up draft boards rather than bouncing around the waiver wire. And finally, as I predicted several months ago, the Patriots basically wasted a ton of picks on Draft Day because 7 of their 9 selections will not be suiting up for them when the '07 season begins.
In my opinion it's absolutely absurd to give up on 3rd or 4th rounder so soon after drafting them and doing so reflects very poorly on a teams front office and scouting staff. Organizations like Oakland and Arizona need to be looking in the mirror and asking themselves some very tough questions right now because they essentially wasted premium draft choices when the players they chose should probably have been immediate starters for them.
September 5th, 2007
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Two top prospects will be returning to action this week and will be facing tough matchups.
Oregon St. wide receiver Sammie Stroughter, who took an 18-day leave of absence from the team for personal reasons, has actually been practicing with the Beavers for a little while now and will make his '07 debut against Cincinnati on Thursday night. Stroughter was a third-team All-American last year when he caught 79 balls for 1,293 yards while also scoring eight touchdowns, three of which came on punt returns. Stroughter will have his work cut out for him though as he'll likely be matched up against underrated Bearcats cornerback Mike Mickens.
TCU defensive end Tommy Blake has also returned to practice after missing the season opener against Baylor due to an undisclosed illness and is expected to play against Texas on Saturday. If Blake does indeed play draftniks will be in for a real treat because he'll be going up against Longhorns offensive tackle Tony Hills, one of the more athletic players at his position in the entire nation and a potential high pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. Blake, who could be a 4-3 DE or a 3-4 OLB in the NFL, led the Mountain West with 7 sacks and 161/2 tackles for a loss in '06.
Keep a close eye on these two this weekend!
September 4th, 2007
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Hope everyone had a good Labor Day weekend and enjoyed the first taste of college football. I figured today I'd just check in with a few of my quick-hit thoughts on some of the action:
* Michigan is not that bad, they simply overlooked Appalachian St. and paid a very high price. The Wolverines will rebound and maybe even win the Big Ten but their National Championship hopes are already out the window. They are now the cautionary tale for coaches.
* Clemson RB James Davis is one of the most underrated pro prospects in the country.
* It's time to start the Jimmy Clausen era in South Bend. Even if Charlie Weis doesn't want to admit it the Irish are rebuilding this year so they might as well take their lumps with Clausen and get him ready for '08 and beyond. He is the real deal too.
* Colt Brennan's stat line: 416 yards and 6 TD's. He is going to put up some sick numbers.
* Louisville's Mario Urrutia gets a lot more press but Harry Douglas is a better pro prospect.
* Maybe it was first game jitters or a hyped up Mississippi St. defense but L.S.U. needs to play much better on offense if they want to win the SEC, let alone the National Championship.
* It looks like Washington has found a keeper in freshman QB Jake Locker.
* Indiana doesn't have many prospects but remember this name for 2009: Marcus Thigpen.
* I liked what I saw from Erik Ainge. His terrible sophomore season was just an aberration.
* Not to toot my own horn or anything but my choice for "Breakout Star", Oklahoma RB DeMarco Murray, ran for 5 TD's in the first half of his very first college game...
And finally, ladies and gentlemen Mr. DeSean Jackson:
September 1st, 2007
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Each year before the start of a new season I announce my prediction for the "Breakout Star" of college football, the guy who I think will emerge as not only a huge name at the amateur level but also surface as a top pro prospect. So far my track record has been pretty good, with Dwayne Jarrett of USC ('04), Chad Jackson of Florida ('05) & Jonathan Stewart of Oregon ('06) as the last three winners of the award. For the second year in a row a running back gets the nod and if he winds up being half as good as the hype would suggest I'll be a perfect 4 for 4.
DeMarco Murray or Oklahoma isn't a name that most fans will recognize but if you've never heard of him before don't worry because there's a good reason: He hasn't played yet!
However, ask anyone who saw Murray run for 105 yards on just nine carries in the spring game against a Sooner defense that only allowed 98.7 yards per game on the ground last year and they will tell you that he is the real deal. In fact, Murray has already been labeled "The Next Reggie Bush" by some.
So why didn't Murray see any action as a freshman? Well the Sooners did have some guy named Adrian Peterson as well as Allen Patrick, who is one of the top senior running backs in the nation this year, so it was just a matter of numbers and the bottom line is Oklahoma didn't need him in 2006. In fact, he will have to fight for carries this year too because Patrick is back and they also have another talented runner by the name of Chris Brown but I have a feeling they are going to have a hard time keeping him off the field. Murray is not going to emerge as an every-down threat as a redshirt freshman in 2007 and we might not get to see him really break out and get a huge workload until next year but with his superb open field running skills and big play ability look for him to make a major impact and become a regular on SportsCenter sooner rather than later.
In terms of pro potential Murray doesn't have the ideal size that you look for at 6-0 and 191lbs., although he will certainly add some bulk over the next 2-3 years, but athletically he is off the charts with a team best 4.43 time in the forty to go along with a 41-inch vertical. Now it's obviously way too early to project where he might eventually go in the NFL Draft down the line, especially considering he hasn't even played in a college game yet, but all indications are that he is a legit 1st round talent. Only time will tell if this kid is as good as advertised but I know I can't wait to see him play and I am very confident in naming him my "2007 Breakout Star".
Last year my runner-up was Florida St. linebacker Lawrence Timmons and all he did was emerge as a 1st round pick after just one season as a starter at the college level. This year USC wideout Patrick Turner came up just short of my top spot but I still expect big things from him in 2007. Turner is a perfect example of the type of phenomenal depth that Pete Carroll has built up in recent years and even though he was an elite recruit coming out of high school he was forced to bide his time as a backup his first two years in the Trojan program. Now he'll have a chance to be their #1 wideout and John David Booty's top target in the passing game. Even though he lacks ideal timed speed Turner is very similar to Mike Williams and Dwayne Jarrett and I fully expect him to have that kind of impact for Southern Cal, starting this year.
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I don't want to say too much about the situation because I obviously don't have all of the details yet but this certainly doesn't bode well for his draft stock. Regardless of whether he's a part of the Class of '08 or '09 Blake will now have to go through an even more rigorous vetting process than usual with scouts and decision-makers wanting to know exactly why a potential high draft pick and All-American candidate left his team, especially in the middle of a season. One of the premier pass rushers in the country, Blake is undersized and may have to move to outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme at the next level but that didn't stop scouts from giving him a 1st round grade prior to these issues surfacing and had he come out as a junior the Underclassmen Advisory Panel told him that he would likely have been a 2nd round pick in '07.
Most (including me) seemed to have Brinkley rated as the top senior inside linebacker available for the 2008 NFL Draft thanks to his ideal size and physical game so this is certainly a blow because it takes a pretty darn good prospect out of the player pool. If not for the injury Brinkley definitely would have been a Day One pick and in my opinion he could have been a fringe 1st rounder. So how will this affect his draft stock? That is obviously still to be determined and a lot will depend on how he recovers and plays next year but just taking a quick superficial look at the situation as it stands right now it will probably cost him some money. Even if he makes it all the way back Brinkley will likely have a lot more competition for that top spot at his position in 2009 than he would have in 2008 and assuming they don't come out early he will almost assuredly be stuck behind James Laurinaitis of Ohio St., Rey Maualuga of USC and Darry Beckwith of L.S.U. in the rankings. With that said I still think going back to school is the right decision for him because at this point barring a miraculous recovery he's damaged goods and probably just a late rounder in '08 whereas next year he could still get back in the first day mix.
Rather than murder all the explanations I am just going to list some of the features you'll find in this massive, 500+ page book:
Coming into the season Matt Ryan of Boston College was a fringe first rounder who some scouts raved about while others, such as myself, were a little more skeptical of since he was coming off an injury-riddled junior campaign. Now healthy, Ryan has been a revelation so far this season while leading the Golden Eagles to an undefeated record and he is converting those who had previously doubted him. In terms of physical tools Ryan is more than adequate across the board but what really sets him apart are the intangibles and when it comes to leadership, toughness and smarts he takes a backseat to no one. In the minds of many Ryan is now the clear-cut #3 senior signal caller for the 2008 NFL Draft, trailing only Brian Brohm and André Woodson, and at this point he is solidly in the first round and still moving up.
Even though he could stand to add some bulk to his 6-2 and 170 lb. frame Rodgers-Cromartie appears to have the physical tools you look for in a pro prospect, most notably 4.45 speed and top-notch athleticism. While he certainly hasn't played against elite competition on a consistent basis at the Division I-AA level Rodgers-Cromartie has been pretty productive and stood out from the pack while making his mark on defense as well as special teams as a return man and kick blocker. For all his physical gifts Rodgers-Cromartie isn't overly aggressive and will definitely need some work from a technique standpoint but at the end of the day it's hard to ignore his upside. Some feel he could go as high as round one and while that is probably a stretch Day One is certainly not out of the question.
That may sound like a ridiculous statement considering he has only played in two games but from what I have seen I'm very comfortable putting that out there. Granted his numbers haven't been eye-popping (178 YDS, 55%, 0 TD / 1 INT) and a lot of those completions came on short swing passes to the flat per the Irish gameplan but you have to keep in mind that he's playing behind what has been a terrible offensive line and he doesn't have any proven playmakers at running back or wide receiver. So if not the statistics what has me so impressed with Clausen? Anyone who has followed this site over the years knows that I am a huge proponent of intangibles when it comes to evaluating quarterbacks because, after all, if all it took to be great was a big arm then Jeff George would be in the Hall of Fame. From what I have seen of him Clausen has exhibited maturity, confidence, decision making and leadership well beyond his years which leads me to believe that those who called him "The LeBron James of College Football" may not have been too far off. Most true freshmen would have had their heads spinning while making their first career start on the road in front of 107,000 hostile fans like Clausen did this past week against Penn St. but he looked as calm, cool and collected as a 3 or 4-year starter. The brother of former Tennessee Vols Casey and Luke Clausen, Jimmy has been groomed to be a big time quarterback and you can certainly see that polish in his game and mechanics. Physically he is more than adequate when it comes to size and arm strength but it's the little things that set Clausen apart from your average young signal caller and those are what will make him great. Give him a few years of tutelage under Charlie Weis and he just may be as refined and ready for the next level as any quarterback we have seen. This is essentially the Marv Marinovich experiment done right.
Personally, I'm still not convinced that this sudden 180-degree turnaround is for real but if they are somehow able to keep up this pace there is no reason why Indy shouldn't be Super Bowl favorites for at least the next 2-3 years. What they did in the playoffs last year was amazing when you consider that their defense was almost historically bad during the regular season but I am actually more impressed with their performance in the 41-10 shellacking of New Orleans considering the losses they suffered in the offseason. Lose a Pro Bowler in Cato June? No problem, just plug in Freddy Keiaho and watch him run all over the field and make impact plays. Lose both of your starting cornerbacks? Why panic? Just insert Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden into the lineup and they'll obviously shut down Drew Brees, one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Booger McFarland goes down for the season with an injury? Piece of cake! That undrafted rookie free agent Ed Johnson will step in and help hold arguably the best running back duo in the league in Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush to a measly 106 yards rushing. Your left tackle who has been a decade long stalwart for you unexpectedly retires? Puh-lease. Just throw rookie Tony Ugoh in there and he'll hold Will Smith, one of the best young defensive ends in the league, sackless. Shall I go on?
The two most notable draft picks to be cut were Quentin Moses and Buster Davis, who were both early 3rd round picks in April. The fall for Moses has been especially hard because just a year ago many had him pegged as a Top 5 overall pick and even though he did get picked up quickly by Arizona he's already on his second NFL team and fighting for a roster spot. Davis also found a new home on the Detroit Lions practice squad after turning down a similar offer from Arizona, which I think was a mistake because he certainly doesn't have the speed that a Cover 2 scheme looks for. Other fourth rounders who were cut include Antonio Pittman by New Orleans, A.J. Davis by Detroit, and Ryan McBean by Pittsburgh. Among the fifth rounders who were unable to make their original teams 53 man rosters were David Clowney by the Packers, Brandon Frye by the Texans, Josh Gattis by the Jaguars, David Jones by the Saints, C.J. Gaddis by the Eagles, Cameron Stephenson by the Steelers, Eric Frampton by the Raiders and Dustin Fry by the Rams. Granted some of those guys were later added to the practice squads of the teams that drafted them but investing a mid-round pick on someone who is unable to make your roster has to be considered a failure. Also note that Pittman and Gaddis are two early entries who could be playing in college right now and potentially moving up draft boards rather than bouncing around the waiver wire. And finally, as I predicted several months ago, the Patriots basically wasted a ton of picks on Draft Day because 7 of their 9 selections will not be suiting up for them when the '07 season begins.