I've got to admit I am feeling pretty good about this one... I have had Jake Long going to the Dolphins for a long time now so I'm not surprised by the pick and it's really the only logical way for them to go. Long is a great player who is worthy of being the #1 pick in this draft and he also addresses the Dolphins greatest need. This also makes sense economically because if you have to invest $30 million in a player you might as well give it to a guy who plays a premium position, as opposed to grossly overpaying a 3-4 outside linebacker like Vernon Gholston or Chris Long.
This one just might come down to the wire and the organization is reportedly split between Glenn Dorsey and Chris Long. In the end talent and value win out though and since Dorsey is rated higher on their draft board, as well as everyone else's, he's the pick. The Rams will probably have to reshuffle their defensive line a bit if Dorsey is their selection but having too much talent is not a bad problem to have. However, if they do go with Chris Long a bunch of mocks, including this one, are in a lot of trouble. Just a side note: The Rams would've loved to land Jake Long here.
Alternate Option: Chris Long
Defensive end is a bigger need than tackle and VP of Personnel Bill Devaney prefers Chris Long.
Alternate Option: Vernon Gholston
There were rumors that St. Louis coveted Gholston at one time but instead he gets the bronze.
Alternate Option: Trade
Would the New Orleans Saints really blow their socks off with a blockbuster offer???
This was not the Falcons preference but it would be the best pick for them in my opinion. Sure you can make a case for waiting until Round 2 to select Brian Brohm, Chad Henne or Joe Flacco but Atlanta needs a franchise quarterback, both on and off the field. Ryan is clearly the top signal caller available in this draft and with only Chris Redman and Joey Harrington in his way he should be able to take over the starting job almost from day one. As I always say, the golden rule of the NFL Draft is that unless you already have a "Franchise" signal caller you do not pass on one.
Alternate Option: Glenn Dorsey
If Glenn Dorsey is here he will almost certainly be the pick. Then they will target a quarterback in the second round or perhaps even explore moving back into the latter portion of round one.
They may have greater needs but take all of that other stuff out of the equation because Darren McFadden is exactly the type of rare athletic specimen with blazing speed that Al Davis has always loved. Not only will this allow Davis to make a huge splash on Draft Day but it will also take some pressure off of franchise quarterback JaMarcus Russell while giving Oakland perhaps the most dynamic young backfield in the league. No one ever really knows what Al Davis is thinking so you can't rule out a curveball here but I think it will be a surprise if the Raiders do not select "D-Mac".
Alternate Option: Vernon Gholston
If it's not McFadden it will probably be Gholston. Like McFadden, Gholston is the type of Workout Warrior that Davis tends to target and the Raiders could certainly use a top young pass rusher. Gholston is also an ideal fit for their hybrid defensive scheme so this would make a lot of sense.
Alternate Option: Chris Long
On the face it would seem like a lock that if Chris Long is here he will be a Raider. He's Howie's son after all! But as Lee Corso would say: "Not so fast my friend". From what I am told Oakland actually prefers Gholston, who fits the mold of what they look for much better than Long does.
SURPRISE! The Chiefs are going to try and trade down from this pick a bit so they may target Harvey a little later in the Top 10 but based on the information I have gathered from sources he is a guy they are looking at. Jared Allen obviously needs to be replaced and Harvey is much more highly thought of in NFL / scouting circles than the general public realizes. This is probably the highest he could possibly go but I definitely think he will be a Top 10 pick when all is said and done. This is the type of projection that has the potential to either make me look real good or bad.
Alternate Option: Chris Long / Vernon Gholston
If they stay at #5 they might opt for one of the other top defensive ends that could be available here. Long & Gholston are also rated a little higher than Harvey on most team's boards around.
Alternate Option: Branden Albert
If they do still want to go offensive line in the Top 10 this is the guy that they would target.
Alternate Option: Matt Ryan
The Chiefs sent their general manager, head coach and offensive coordinator half way across the country to Matt Ryan's Pro Day workout. You don't just waste the time of three high-profile members of the organization on a smokescreen so they do have a legitimate interest in Ryan.
The Jets are basically at the mercy of the teams above them and will just have to wait to see who falls into their laps. This is probably a best-case scenario though because two of the four players they are said to be targeting are still on the board and I think they would opt for Chris Long if given the opportunity. Sure they added Calvin Pace as a free agent but you can never have enough pass rushers and Long also possesses the type of elite intangibles that this franchise looks for. In New England Eric Mangini had Mike Vrabel and this is his chance to get an exact replica.
Alternate Option: Darren McFadden
Running back isn't their biggest need but even though McFadden isn't quite in Adrian Peterson's league as a prospect he can have a Peterson-esque impact on the Jets offense and that's just what the doctor ordered. Providing they aren't too concerned about his character that is. As a deep sleeper keep an eye on Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart, who the Jets reportedly like a lot.
Alternate Option: Vernon Gholston
If both Darren McFadden and Chris Long are off the board this could be their guy.
Alternate Option: Matt Ryan
It may just be a smokescreen trying to entice someone into trading up but the Jets have shown a lot of interest in Ryan, who would represent a major upgrade over Clemens and Pennington.
Everyone assumes that the Patriots will try and trade this pick but if Gholston fell into their laps they would have to re-think those plans. Concerns about Gholston's consistency emerged late in the draft process which is why he could potentially fall this far but #7 is probably his basement too since New England would likely jump at the chance to add an impact linebacker like this. Gholston could very easily be selected by Oakland, Kansas City or the Jets but if he falls through the cracks this would be a great situation because Belichick would help him fulfill his vast potential.
Alternate Option: Chris Long / Derrick Harvey
If one of these other top 3-4 outside linebacker prospects fell to them they would likely pounce.
Alternate Option: Keith Rivers
Would project inside in their 3-4 scheme and with Junior Seau's status still up in the air and Tedy Bruschi basically taking it year-by-year at this point they certainly need some help there.
Alternate Option: Branden Albert
After seeing their offensive line get worked in the Super Bowl they could look for an upgrade.
Alternate Option: Trade
There is a pretty good chance that New England will move down and if Matt Ryan or especially Sedrick Ellis are still on the board there should be a market for this pick. The Pats always love to accumulate those extra draft choices and they probably aren't crazy about paying a Top 10 pick.
8. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (f/BAL) *** Projected Trade ***
I usually don't project trades but the Saints are so hot-to-trot for a defensive tackle I think they will leap ahead of Cincinnati to land Sedrick Ellis. Everyone is talking about Glenn Dorsey right now but Ellis is not that far behind him and at the Senior Bowl he was a man amongst boys. It's obvious that New Orleans wants an upgrade in the middle of their defensive line and after Ellis there is a big drop-off in talent at the position, which is why he will be a coveted prospect on Draft Day. In fact, Ellis is the one guy who I could actually envision there being a bidding war for.
Alternate Option: Glenn Dorsey
If they did make a deal to move up, as has been rumored, Glenn Dorsey would be their target.
Alternate Option: Leodis McKelvin / Mike Jenkins / Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
If they're stuck at #10 and miss out on Sedrick Ellis they may turn their attention to cornerback.
Alternate Option: Keith Rivers
Jonathan Vilma will shore up the middle but they could still look for an upgrade outside.
The guy who the Bengals want / need is Sedrick Ellis but odds are he won't just fall into their laps. If they can't land Ellis they could turn their attention to another Trojan, Keith Rivers. After losing Landon Johnson, Caleb Miller and LeMar Marshall to free agency the Bengals are definitely in need of some help at linebacker and Rivers is versatile enough to play both outside and inside. The dream scenario is to land the stud defensive tackle they yearn for but if that's not to be then Rivers isn't a bad consolation prize and he'd be a impact player for that defensive front seven.
Alternate Option: Sedrick Ellis
If he fell this far it would be a no-brainer and they could even try to move up for him.
Alternate Option: Derrick Harvey
Marvin Lewis really likes this guy, even though they have Robert Geathers and Antwan Odom.
Alternate Option: Branden Albert / Ryan Clady
Neither Willie Anderson or Levi Jones are getting any younger and both have battled injuries.
Alternate Option: Jonathan Stewart / Rashard Mendenhall
Rudi Johnson is coming off a bad year and they may want to re-emphasize the running game.
If they don't land Matt Ryan, which is a strong possibility, then Baltimore will be open to trading down because they will be able to get most of the guys they are targeting a little later. Chris McAlister is still one of the best in the business when healthy but Samari Rolle is nearing the end of his career and there is no depth to speak of. The Ravens have had a strong interest in Leodis McKelvin since very early on in the process and it appears he has clearly emerged as the top cornerback in this draft on most boards around the league. McKelvin's clearly their Plan B though.
Alternate Option: Matt Ryan
The dream scenario would be Ryan falling to them at #8 and they could try to move up for him.
Alternate Option: Branden Albert / Ryan Clady
It all depends on how they feel about Jared Gaither's ability to replace the retiring Jon Ogden.
Alternate Option: Sedrick Ellis
May not address a major need but could be the proverbial "Best Player Available" at #8.
Most mock drafts out there probably have Devin Thomas here but the Bills need a cornerback as well and they should still be able to get a big receiver such as James Hardy or Malcolm Kelly in round two. Mike Jenkins has kind of flown under the radar throughout the draft process but he has all the physical tools you look for (5-11 / 197, 4.40) and a lot of teams really like him (including the Bills) and quite a few of them have him rated as the #2 corner in this draft. I think Jenkins is going to come off the board a bit earlier than most expect and this just might be where he lands.
Alternate Option: Devin Thomas
You have no idea how close I was to putting Thomas in this spot and I may regret it later. The Bills want a big wideout to compliment Lee Evans and word is they like Thomas so even though he would be a slight reach here that has not really deterred this organization in recent years.
Alternate Option: Leodis McKelvin / Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
If they went in a different direction at cornerback it would most likely be one of these guys.
Alternate Option: Trade
There are some teams who want to move up for an offensive lineman and they could probably get Devin Thomas or a corner later. Keep an eye on Philadelphia as a potential trade partner.
This is probably a worst-case scenario for Branden Albert, who could still pretty easily go as high as #5 overall, but if he dropped into their laps Denver would be more than happy to stop his slide. With the retirement of Matt Lepsis the Broncos now have a big gaping hole at left tackle and with this pick they should be in great position to land a replacement. Albert has been the hottest player in this draft for the last month or so and even though he played guard in college most teams view him as a left tackle due to his size ( 6-5, 309 lbs. ), long arms and rare athleticism.
Alternate Option: Ryan Clady / Chris Williams
The other two offensive tackles who will be under consideration at this point.
Alternate Option: Keith Rivers
The type of fast, athletic linebacker this team loves and would be a good value if he fell this far.
Alternate Option: Rashard Mendenhall
I wouldn't call it likely but they did bring him in for an official visit so you never know...
It's hard to find a spot for these running backs but Carolina could snatch up one of them. DeShaun Foster is now gone and DeAngelo Williams hasn't lived up to his status as a former #1, although in all fairness he really hasn't been given much of an opportunity either. Despite his toe injury Jonathan Stewart is still a legit Top 15 pick and some teams have him graded as the top running back in this draft. Back when they made their Super Bowl run the Panthers relied on Stephen Davis and a strong running game and at 235 lbs. Stewart would help them revive that attack.
Alternate Option: Ryan Clady / Branden Albert / Jeff Otah
The Panthers plan to move Travelle Wharton inside to left guard and they would like to keep Jordan Gross on the right side so they could grab a left tackle here. There have been rumors that Ryan Clady is the apple of their eye, Braden Albert would be a great value and Jeff Otah would give them the physical, mauling dimension that they are said to be looking for up front.
Alternate Option: Derrick Harvey
Mike Rucker has retired and Julius Peppers is coming off the worst season of his career.
Alternate Option: Rashard Mendenhall
The other option if they want to go with a running back here.
I don't think there's any question that the Bears are in the market for an offensive tackle in round one and they would probably be thrilled to see Ryan Clady drop to them. There are more questions about Clady in scouting circles than people realize but the bottom line is you simply don't find many left tackles with his blend of size and athleticism. By bringing in a left tackle here the Bears will be able to move John Tait over to the right side, where he would replace Fred Miller. However, if the run on offensive lineman starts just one pick earlier Clady would be gone by this point.
Alternate Option: Branden Albert / Chris Williams / Jeff Otah
I can't envision Albert falling this far but if he did he would be the best fit. If Albert and Clady are both gone they would more than likely look to Williams, a left tackle, or Otah, a right tackle.
Alternate Option: Rashard Mendenhall / Jonathan Stewart / Felix Jones
If they really don't think Cedric Benson is their guy they could opt to replace him here.
Rod Marinelli is doing things his way these days and what he wants more than anything is a middle linebacker for his Tampa 2 defense. The speedy, athletic Jerod Mayo would be just a perfect fit for Detroit's scheme which is why I had him going to them in round two for a long time. However, Mayo's stock has risen to the point where if they want him they'll have to pull the trigger in round one. Would this be a slight reach? Sure, but not as much as you might think. They also need a running back but there is plenty of depth there so they should be able to get one later on.
Alternate Option: Derrick Harvey
They are said to be salivating over this guy but he will most likely be long gone by this point.
Alternate Option: Jonathan Stewart / Rashard Mendenhall
If they opt to go running back in round one, which is very possible, word is they prefer Stewart.
Edgerrin James has a lot of miles on his tires and appears to be winding down so Ken Whisenhunt is in the market for another top running back to help execute his power rushing attack. Mendenhall could easily come off the board a lot earlier than this but if he gets past Detroit I just don't see the Cardinals passing on him. Even though he was a one-year wonder for the Illini some have Mendenhall rated as the top running back in this draft and for a 225 pounder he has excellent speed, which he showed off in the Rose Bowl by running past the USC defense for a 79-yard TD.
Alternate Option: Jonathan Stewart
The other option at running back if he is somehow still available.
Alternate Option: Mike Jenkins / Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie / Aqib Talb
Cornerback is the Cardinals most glaring need, especially with Antrel Rolle now moving inside to safety, but word is they feel as though they can get a good cover guy in round two. However, there should be some pretty good value left at corner here in the middle of the first round and you certainly can't rule out them deciding that one of them is just way too talented to pass up.
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Updated April 25, 2008
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